IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/29633.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Currency Carry Trade by Trucks: The Curious Case of China's Massive Imports from Itself

Author

Listed:
  • Xuepeng Liu
  • Heiwai Tang
  • Zhi Wang
  • Shang-Jin Wei

Abstract

With capital controls, the standard financial market transactions needed for currency carry trade are hard to implement. Using detailed trade data reported by both the mainland Chinese and Hong Kong’s governments, we present evidence that indirect currency carry trade likely takes place via round-trip reimports. We also show that greater state control in terms of more state-owned firms does not reduce such “carry trade by trucks.”

Suggested Citation

  • Xuepeng Liu & Heiwai Tang & Zhi Wang & Shang-Jin Wei, 2022. "Currency Carry Trade by Trucks: The Curious Case of China's Massive Imports from Itself," NBER Working Papers 29633, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29633
    Note: IFM
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w29633.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wei, Shang-Jin & Zhang, Zhiwei, 2007. "Collateral damage: Exchange controls and international trade," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 841-863, September.
    2. Aizenman, Joshua, 2008. "On the hidden links between financial and trade opening," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 372-386, April.
    3. Guonan Ma & Robert N McCauley, 2008. "Efficacy Of China'S Capital Controls: Evidence From Price And Flow Data," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 104-123, February.
    4. Rauch, James E., 1999. "Networks versus markets in international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 7-35, June.
    5. Ferrantino, Michael J. & Liu, Xuepeng & Wang, Zhi, 2012. "Evasion behaviors of exporters and importers: Evidence from the U.S.–China trade data discrepancy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 141-157.
    6. Olivier Jeanne & Anton Korinek, 2010. "Excessive Volatility in Capital Flows: A Pigouvian Taxation Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 403-407, May.
    7. Lin, Shu & Xiao, Jinchuan & Ye, Haichun, 2020. "Disguised carry trade and the transmission of global liquidity shocks: Evidence from China’s goods trade data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    8. Raymond Fisman & Shang-Jin Wei, 2004. "Tax Rates and Tax Evasion: Evidence from "Missing Imports" in China," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(2), pages 471-500, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lu, Bing & Wang, Yaqi, 2024. "Multinationals' profits in China: Impact of tax avoidance," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    2. Liu, Renliang & Sheng, Liugang & Wang, Jian, 2023. "Faking trade for capital control evasion: Evidence from dual exchange rate arbitrage in China," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Liu, Renliang & Sheng, Liugang & Wang, Jian, 2023. "Faking trade for capital control evasion: Evidence from dual exchange rate arbitrage in China," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    2. Renliang Liu & Thanasis Stengos, 2023. "What Drives Illicit Financial Flows? An Empirical Study of Trade Data Discrepancies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 371-409, April.
    3. Lin, Shu & Xiao, Jinchuan & Ye, Haichun, 2020. "Disguised carry trade and the transmission of global liquidity shocks: Evidence from China’s goods trade data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    4. Bussy, Adrien, 2021. "Tariff evasion with endogenous enforcement," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    5. Sven Steinkamp & Frank Westermann, 2022. "Development aid and illicit capital flight: Evidence from Nepal," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(7), pages 2305-2336, July.
    6. Dominik Boddin & Frank Stähler, 2018. "The Organization of International Trade," CESifo Working Paper Series 7378, CESifo.
    7. Cyril Chalendard, 2015. "Use of internal information, external information acquisition and customs underreporting," Working Papers halshs-01179445, HAL.
    8. Liu, Xuepeng & Shi, Huimin & Ferrantino, Michael, 2016. "Tax evasion through trade intermediation: Evidence from Chinese exporters," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 518-535.
    9. Antoine Bouët & Devesh Roy, 2012. "Trade protection and tax evasion: Evidence from Kenya, Mauritius, and Nigeria," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 287-320, April.
    10. Mirco Tonin, 2014. "Reporting import tariffs (and other taxes)," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 21(1), pages 153-173, February.
    11. Antoine Bouët & Devesh Roy, 2012. "Trade protection and tax evasion: Evidence from Kenya, Mauritius, and Nigeria," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 287-320, April.
    12. Joel CARIOLLE & Cyril CHALENDARD & Anne-Marie GEOURJON & Bertrand LAPORTE, 2017. "Going beyond analysis of internal data to support customs modernization: A case study in Gabon," Working Papers 201723, CERDI.
    13. Jon Bakija & Ivan Badinski, 2014. "Evidence on the Responsiveness of Export-Related VAT Evasion to VAT Rates in the EU," Department of Economics Working Papers 2014-06, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    14. Joel CARIOLLE & Cyril CHALENDARD & Anne-Marie GEOURJON & Bertrand LAPORTE, 2016. "Décloisonner l’analyse des données pour appuyer la modernisation des douanes : une illustration à partir du Gabon," Working Papers 201618, CERDI.
    15. Reshad N. Ahsan, 2017. "Does Corruption Attenuate The Effect Of Red Tape On Exports?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(3), pages 1192-1212, July.
    16. Andualem T Mengistu & Kiflu G Molla & Giulia Mascagni, 2022. "Trade Tax Evasion and the Tax Rate: Evidence from Transaction-level Trade Data," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 31(1), pages 94-122.
    17. C.J. Krizan & James Tybout & Zi Wang & Yingyan Zhao, 2020. "Are Customs Records Consistent Across Countries? Evidence from the U.S. and Colombia," Working Papers 20-11, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    18. Ila Patnaik & Abhijit Sen Gupta & Ajay Shah, 2012. "Determinants of Trade Misinvoicing," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(5), pages 891-910, November.
    19. Zhitao Lin & Jinzhao Chen & Xingwang Qian, 2022. "Capital controls and the volatility of the renminbi covered interest deviation," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1), pages 205-236, February.
    20. Matthias Helble & Ben Shepherd & John S. Wilson, 2009. "Transparency and Regional Integration in the Asia Pacific," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(3), pages 479-508, March.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29633. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.