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Seasonal Fluctuations and the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Model of Consumption

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Jeffrey A. Miron

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Abstract

Recent empirical work has found that both aggregate and micro data reject the rational expectations version of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income model of consumption. This paper examines a new possible explanation for the rejections: the treatment of seasonal fluctuations. There are substantial seasonal fluctuations in consumption purchases, but no previous paper has determined whether these fluctuations are consistent with the Life Cycle-Permanent Income model. The results in this paper show that when the seasonal fluctuations in consumption purchases are included in an analysis of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income model there is no evidence in the aggregate data against the model. The estimates of the parameters of agents' utility functions obtained here are plausible, and the data do not reject the overidentifying restrictions on the model.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 1845.

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Date of creation: May 1987
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1845

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  2. Shapiro, Matthew D., 1984. "The permanent income hypothesis and the real interest rate : Some evidence from panel data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 93-100. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-87, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Mankiw, N. Gregory, 1982. "Hall's consumption hypothesis and durable goods," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 417-425. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Kelvin J. Lancaster, 1966. "A New Approach to Consumer Theory," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74, pages 132. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Ben S. Bernanke, 1982. "Adjustment Costs, Durables, and Aggregate Consumption," NBER Working Papers 1038, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Roll, Richard, 1984. "Orange Juice and Weather," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(5), pages 861-80, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Grossman, Sanford J & Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "The Determinants of the Variability of Stock Market Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(2), pages 222-27, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Davidson, James E. H. & Hendry, David F., 1981. "Interpreting econometric evidence : The behaviour of consumers' expenditure in the UK," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 177-192. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Mervyn A. King, 1983. "The Economics of Saving," NBER Working Papers 1247, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Rubinstein, Mark, 1974. "An aggregation theorem for securities markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 225-244, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. "Generalized Instrumental Variables Estimation of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1269-86, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Orazio P. Attanasio & Guglielmo Weber, 1994. "Is Consumption Growth Consistent with Intertemporal Optimization? Evidence from the Consumer Expenditure Survey," NBER Working Papers 4795, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Sangdai Ryoo, 2002. "Testing For Sunspots In The Foreign Exchange Market," International Economic Journal, Korean International Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 39-58, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Franz C. Palm & Carlo C. A. Winder, 1990. "Economic Theory and Structural Time Series Models for Aggregate Consumption," Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, ADRES, issue 18, pages 02, Avril-Jui. [Downloadable!]
  4. Hardouvelis, Gikas A & Malliaropoulos, Dimitrios, 2004. "The Yield Spread as a Symmetric Predictor of Output and Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 4314, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Masao Ogaki, 2003. "Aggregation under Complete Markets," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(4), pages 977-986, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Wayne E. Ferson & George M. Constantinides, 1992. "Habit Persistence and Durability in Aggregate Consumption: Empirical Tests," NBER Working Papers 3631, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Kris Jacobs & Kevin Q. Wang, 2002. "Idiosyncratic Consumption Risk and the Cross-Section of Asset Returns," CIRANO Working Papers 2002s-11, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
  8. Joo-Ha Nam, 1994. "Seasonality And Habit Persistence In A Time-Nonseparable Consumption-Based Asset Pricing Model," International Economic Journal, Korean International Economic Association, vol. 8(3), pages 57-69, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Andrew B. Abel & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1994. "Does the Consumption of Different Age Groups Move Together? A New Nonparametric Test of Intergenerational Altruism," NBER Working Papers 2490, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Martha Starr-McCluer, 2000. "The effects of weather on retail sales," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-08, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  11. Martin S. Eichenbaum & Kenneth J. Singleton, 1986. "Do Equilibrium Real Business Cycle Theories Explain Post-War U.S. Business Cycles?," NBER Working Papers 1932, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Gianluca Cubadda, 2001. "Common Features In Time Series With Both Deterministic And Stochastic Seasonality," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 201-216. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Fumio Hayashi, 1985. "Tests for Liquidity Constraints: A Critical Survey," NBER Working Papers 1720, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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