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A Defense of Traditional Hypotheses About the Term Structure of InterestRates

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John Y. Campbell

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Abstract

Expectations theories of asset returns may be interpreted as stating either that risk premia are zero, or that they are constant through time. Under the former interpretation, different versions of the expectations theory of the term structure are inconsistent with one another, but I show that this does not necessarily carry over to the constant risk premium interpretation of the theory. Furthermore, I argue that differences among expectations theories are of 'second order" in a precise mathematical sense. I present an approximate linearized framework for analysis of the term structure in which these differences disappear, and I test its accuracy in practice using data from the CRSP government bond tapes.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 1508.

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Date of creation: Mar 1986
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1508

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1983. "A Simple Account of the Behavior of Long-Term Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 1203, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. N. Gregory Mankiw & Lawrence H. Summers, 1984. "Do Long-Term Interest Rates Overreact to Short-Term Interest Rates?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 15(1984-1), pages 223-248. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "The information in the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 509-528, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Robert J. Shiller & John Y. Campbell & Kermit L. Schoenholtz, 1983. "Forward Rates and Future Policy: Interpreting the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 667, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1981. "A Re-examination of Traditional Hypotheses about the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(4), pages 769-99, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Diether Beuermann & Antonios Antoniou & Alejandro Bernales, 2005. "The Dynamics of the Short-Term Interest Rate in the UK," Finance 0512029, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  2. René Garcia & Richard Luger, 2005. "The Canadian Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: An Equilibrium-Based Approach," Working Papers 05-36, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  3. Hugues Pirotte, 1999. "Implementing a Structural Valuation Model of Swap Credit-Sensitive Rates," Working Papers CEB 99-001.RS, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Solvay Brussels School of Economics and Management, Centre Emile Bernheim (CEB). [Downloadable!]
  4. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1989. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," NBER Working Papers 2100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. James E. Pesando & Andre Plourde, 1986. "The October 1979 Change in the Monetary Regime: Its Impact on the "Forecastability" of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 1874, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. René Garcia & Richard Luger, 2009. "Risk Aversion, Intertemporal Substitution, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," CIRANO Working Papers 2009s-20, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
  7. Antonios Sangvinatsos & Jessica A. Wachter, 2003. "Does the Failure of the Expectations Hypothesis Matter for Long-Term Investors," NBER Working Papers 10086, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Kenneth A. Froot, 1990. "New Hope for the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 2363, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Sharon Kozicki & P.A. Tinsley, 1996. "Moving endpoints and the internal consistency of agents' ex ante forecasts," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-47, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1991. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," NBER Working Papers 3153, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Bams, Dennis & Wolff, Christian C, 2000. "Risk Premia In The Term Structure Of Interest Rates: A Panel Data Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 2392, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Sharon Kozicki & Peter A. Tinsley, . "Moving Endpoints in Macrofinance," Computing in Economics and Finance 1996 _058, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  13. Mark Fisher & Christian Gilles, 1996. "Around and around: the expectations hypothesis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-17, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  14. Magdalena Massot Perelló & Juan M. Nave Pineda, 2003. "La hipótesis de las expectativas en el largo plazo: evidencia en el mercado español de deuda pública," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 27(3), pages 533-564, September. [Downloadable!]
  15. Franco Parisi, 1998. "Tasas de Interés Nominal de Corto Plazo en Chile: Una Comparación Empírica de sus Modelos," Cuadernos de Economía (Latin American Journal of Economics), Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 35(105), pages 161-182. [Downloadable!]
  16. A. Mansur & M. Masih & Vicky Ryan, 2005. "The term structure of interest rates in Australia: an application of long run structural modelling," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 15(8), pages 557-573, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Eric Jondeau & Roland Ricart, 1998. "La théorie des anticipations de la structure par terme : test à partir de titres publics français," Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, ADRES, issue 52, pages 01, Octobre-D. [Downloadable!]
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