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Three Epochs of Oil

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Author Info
Eyal Dvir
Kenneth S. Rogoff

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Abstract

We test for changes in price behavior in the longest crude oil price series available (1861-2008). We find strong evidence for changes in persistence and in volatility of price across three well defined periods. We argue that historically, the real price of oil has tended to be highly persistent and volatile whenever rapid industrialization in a major world economy coincided with uncertainty regarding access to supply. We present a modified commodity storage model that fully incorporates demand, and further can accommodate both transitory and permanent shocks. We show that the role of storage when demand is subject to persistent growth shocks is speculative, instead of its classic mitigating role. This result helps to account for the increased volatility of oil price we observe in these periods.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 14927.

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Date of creation: Apr 2009
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14927

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
L7 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction
N5 - Economic History - - Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment and Extractive Industries
Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy

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  3. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2006. "Modified tests for a change in persistence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 134(2), pages 441-469, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Serena Ng & Francisco J. Ruge-Murcia, 2000. "Explaining the Persistence of Commodity Prices," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 16(1/2), pages 149-171, October. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Caner, M. & Kilian, L., 2001. "Size distortions of tests of the null hypothesis of stationarity: evidence and implications for the PPP debate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 639-657, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
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  15. Robert B. Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2002. "Do We Really Know that Oil Caused the Great Stagflation? A Monetary Alternative," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, pages 137-198 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  1. Ansgar Belke & Daniel Gros, 2009. "A Simple Model of an Oil Based Global Savings Glut – The “China Factor” and the OPEC Cartel," Ruhr Economic Papers 0128, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen. [Downloadable!]
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