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Trading Frictions and House Price Dynamics

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Author Info
Andrew Caplin
John Leahy

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Abstract

We construct a model of trade with matching frictions. The model provides a simple characterization for the joint proces of prices, sales and inventory. We compare the implications of the model to certain properties of housing markets. The model can generate the large price changes and the positive correlation between prices and sales that we see in the data. Unlike the data, prices are negatively autocorrelated and high inventory predicts price appreciation. We investigate several amendments to the model.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 14605.

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Date of creation: Dec 2008
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14605

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D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search, Learning, and Information
E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

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  1. FRANÇOIS ORTALO-MAGNÉ & SVEN RADY, 2006. "Housing Market Dynamics: On the Contribution of Income Shocks and Credit Constraints," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 73(2), pages 459-485, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1989. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," NBER Working Papers 2506, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Bental, Benjamin & Eden, Benjamin, 1993. "Inventories in a Competitive Environment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(5), pages 863-86, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Lucas, Robert Jr. & Prescott, Edward C., 1974. "Equilibrium search and unemployment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 188-209, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Krainer, John, 2001. "A Theory of Liquidity in Residential Real Estate Markets," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 32-53, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Wheaton, William C, 1990. "Vacancy, Search, and Prices in a Housing Market Matching Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(6), pages 1270-92, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Prescott, Edward C, 1975. "Efficiency of the Natural Rate," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(6), pages 1229-36, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. James Albrecht & Axel Anderson & Eric Smith & Susan Vroman, 2007. "Opportunistic Matching In The Housing Market," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 48(2), pages 641-664, 05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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