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Common Failings: How Corporate Defaults are Correlated

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Author Info
Sanjiv Das
Darrell Duffie
Nikunj Kapadia
Leandro Saita

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Abstract

We develop, and apply to data on U.S. corporations from 1979-2004, tests of the standard doubly-stochastic assumption under which firms'default times are correlated only as implied by the correlation of factors determining their default intensities. This assumption is violated in the presence of contagion or "frailty" (unobservable explanatory variables that are correlated across firms). Our tests do not depend on the time-series properties of default intensities. The data do not support the joint hypothesis of well specified default intensities and the doubly-stochastic assumption. There is also some evidence of default clustering in excess of that implied by the doubly-stochastic model with the given intensities.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 11961.

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Date of creation: Jan 2006
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11961

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G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Zhou, Chunsheng, 2001. "An Analysis of Default Correlations and Multiple Defaults," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(2), pages 555-76.
  2. Darrel Duffie & Leandro Saita & Ke Wang, 2005. "Multi-Period Corporate Default Prediction With Stochastic Covariates," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-373, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo. [Downloadable!]
  3. Linda Allen & Anthony Saunders, 2003. "A survey of cyclical effects in credit risk measurement model," BIS Working Papers 126, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
  4. Giesecke, Kay, 2004. "Correlated default with incomplete information," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 1521-1545, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Cynthia G. McDonald & Linda M. Van De Gucht, 1999. "High-Yield Bond Default And Call Risks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(3), pages 409-419, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Lennox, Clive, 1999. "Identifying failing companies: a re-evaluation of the logit, probit and DA approaches," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 347-364, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Anil Kashyap & Jeremy C. Stein, 2004. "Cyclical implications of the Basel II capital standards," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q I, pages 18-31. [Downloadable!]
  8. P. Collin-Dufresne & R. Goldstein & J. Hugonnier, 2004. "A General Formula for Valuing Defaultable Securities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(5), pages 1377-1407, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Robert A. Jarrow & David Lando & Fan Yu, 2005. "Default Risk And Diversification: Theory And Empirical Implications," Mathematical Finance, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 15(1), pages 1-26. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Michael B. Gordy, 2002. "A risk-factor model foundation for ratings-based bank capital rules," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-55, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  11. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-70, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Shumway, Tyler, 2001. "Forecasting Bankruptcy More Accurately: A Simple Hazard Model," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(1), pages 101-24, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Robert A. Jarrow, 2001. "Counterparty Risk and the Pricing of Defaultable Securities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(5), pages 1765-1799, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Lo, Andrew W., 1986. "Logit versus discriminant analysis : A specification test and application to corporate bankruptcies," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 151-178, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Til Schuermann & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2006. "Visible and hidden risk factors for banks," Staff Reports 252, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  2. Xin Huang & Hao Zhou & Haibin Zhu, 2009. "A Framework for Assessing the Systemic Risk of Major Financial Institutions," BIS Working Papers 281, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
  3. Nikola A. Tarashev, 2008. "An Empirical Evaluation of Structural Credit-Risk Models," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(1), pages 1-53, March. [Downloadable!]
  4. Tang, Dragon Yongjun & Yan, Hong, 2008. "Market conditions, default risk and credit spreads," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2008,08, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  5. Jarko Fidrmuc & Christa Hainz & Anton Malesich, 2006. "Default Rates in the Loan Market for SMEs: Evidence from Slovakia," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp854, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Breuer, Thomas & Jandacka, Martin & Rheinberger, Klaus & Summer, Martin, 2008. "Regulatory capital for market and credit risk interaction: is current regulation always conservative?," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2008,14, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  7. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Prasanna Gai & Sujit Kapadia & Nada Mora & Claus Puhr, 2009. "Towards a Framework for Quantifying Systemic Stability," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(3), pages 47-81, September. [Downloadable!]
  8. Rama Cont & Andreea Minca, 2008. "Recovering portfolio default intensities implied by CDO quotes," Working Papers hal-00413730_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
  9. Zhu, Haibin & Tarashev, Nikola A., 2008. "The pricing of correlated default risk: evidence from the credit derivatives market," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2008,09, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  10. Siem Jan Koopman & André Lucas & Bernd Schwaab, 2008. "Forecasting Cross-Sections of Frailty-Correlated Default," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-029/4, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
  11. Diana Barro & Antonella Basso, 2008. "A network of business relations to model counterparty risk," Working Papers 171, Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Venice. [Downloadable!]
  12. Philippe Ehlers & Philipp Schönbucher, 2009. "Background filtrations and canonical loss processes for top-down models of portfolio credit risk," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 79-103, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Kiefer, Nicholas M., 2008. "Default Estimation, Correlated Defaults, and Expert Information," Working Papers 08-02, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics. [Downloadable!]
  14. Francis A. Longstaff & Arvind Rajan, 2006. "An Empirical Analysis of the Pricing of Collateralized Debt Obligations," NBER Working Papers 12210, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Sanjiv Das, 2007. "Basel II: Correlation Related Issues," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 17-38, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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