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Retrospective on the 1970s Productivity Slowdown

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  • William Nordhaus

Abstract

The present study analyzes the "productivity slowdown" of the 1970s. The study also develops a new data set -- industrial data available back to 1948 -- as well as a new set of tools for decomposing changes in productivity growth. The major result of this study is that the productivity slowdown of the 1970s has survived three decades of scrutiny, conceptual refinements, and data revisions. The slowdown was primarily centered in those sectors that were most energy-intensive, were hardest hit by the energy shocks of the 1970s, and therefore had large output declines. In a sense, the energy shocks were the earthquake, and the industries with the largest slowdown were near the epicenter of the tectonic shifts in the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • William Nordhaus, 2004. "Retrospective on the 1970s Productivity Slowdown," NBER Working Papers 10950, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10950
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    Cited by:

    1. Christophe Cahn & Arthur Saint-Guilhem, 2010. "Potential output growth in several industrialised countries a comparison," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 139-165, August.
    2. Barry Eichengreen & Donghyun Park & Kwanho Shin, 2017. "The Global Productivity Slump: Common and Country-Specific Factors," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 16(3), pages 1-41, Fall.
    3. Stefania Albanesi, 2019. "Changing Business Cycles: The Role of Women's Employment," Working Papers 2019-021, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    4. Juan Antolin-Diaz & Thomas Drechsel & Ivan Petrella, 2017. "Tracking the Slowdown in Long-Run GDP Growth," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 99(2), pages 343-356, May.
    5. Matteo Degasperi & Thomas Fredholm, 2010. "Productivity Accounting Based On Production Prices," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 267-281, May.
    6. Petrella, Ivan & Drechsel, Thomas & Antolin-Diaz, Juan, 2014. "Following the Trend: Tracking GDP when Long-Run Growth is Uncertain," CEPR Discussion Papers 10272, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Vandenbroucke, Guillaume, 2021. "The baby boomers and the productivity slowdown," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    8. Aamer Abu-Qarn & Suleiman Abu-Bader, 2007. "Getting Income Shares Right: A Panel Data Investigation for OECD Countries," Working Papers 0701, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics.
    9. Malley, Jim & Woitek, Ulrich, 2010. "Technology shocks and aggregate fluctuations in an estimated hybrid RBC model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 1214-1232, July.
    10. Steven Trypsteen, 2014. "Cross-Country Interactions, the Great Moderation and the Role of Output Volatility in Growth," Discussion Papers 2014/10, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    11. del Río, Fernando & Lores, Francisco-Xavier, 2021. "Accounting for U.S. economic growth 1954–2017," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    12. John Dawson & John Seater, 2013. "Federal regulation and aggregate economic growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 137-177, June.
    13. Aamer S. Abu-Qarn & Suleiman Abu-Bader, 2009. "Getting Income Shares Right," Economic Development Quarterly, , vol. 23(3), pages 254-266, August.
    14. John W. Dawson & John J. Seater, 2005. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Federal Regulation," Working Papers 05-02, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University.
    15. Ian Keay, 2008. "Resource Intensive Production And Aggregate Economic Performance," Working Paper 1176, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    16. Steven Trypsteen, 2014. "The Importance of a Time-Varying Variance and Cross-Country Interactions in Forecast Models," Discussion Papers 2014/15, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    17. Daechang Kang, 2010. "The Effect of Public Capital on the Productivity - An Analysis on the U.S. Highway Stock," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 26, pages 177-201.
    18. Undp, 2011. "HDR 2011 - Sustainability and Equity: A Better Future for All," Human Development Report (1990 to present), Human Development Report Office (HDRO), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), number hdr2011, September.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models

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