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Two Centuries of Economic Growth: Europe Chasing the American Frontier

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Robert J. Gordon

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Abstract

Starting from the same level of productivity and per-capita income as the United States in the mid-nineteenth century, Europe fell behind steadily to a level of barely half in 1950, and then began a rapid catch-up. While Europe's level of productivity has almost converged, its income per person has leveled off at about three-quarters of America's. How could Europe be so productive yet so poor? The simple answer is that hours per person in Europe have fallen drastically in the past 40 years, reflecting long vacations, high unemployment, and low labor force participation, and only about one-third of the Europe-America difference reflects voluntarily chosen leisure. The paper contains a welfare analysis of the difference and argues that conventional national income data overstate the advantage of America over Europe, and that Europe's welfare is about 8 percent below the American level rather than the 25 percent implied by a comparison of measured income per capita. A historical analysis traces Europe's falling behind after 1870 to American political unity, fostering large-scale material-intensive manufacturing and a set of marketing innovations to a set of additional advantages that would not have been possessed even if Europe had hypothetically created a United States of Europe in 1870. After 1913 the U. S. surged further ahead, due to its early exploitation of the great inventions of electricity and the internal combustion engine, while Europe was distracted by wars and interwar economic chaos. After 1950 Europe's catch up was achieved both by exploiting the great inventions 40 years late, and also by the gradual erosion of early American advantages. But after 1995 the gap began to widen again, a development that brings to the forefront fundamental American advantages in fostering and exploiting innovation.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 10662.

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Date of creation: Aug 2004
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10662

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A1 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics
N0 - Economic History - - General

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Robert J. Gordon, 1998. "Is There a Tradeoff between Unemployment and Productivity Growth?," NBER Working Papers 5081, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Goldin, Claudia, 1998. "America's Graduation from High School: The Evolution and Spread of Secondary Schooling in the Twentieth Century," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 58(02), pages 345-374, June. [Downloadable!]
  3. Devine, Warren D., 1983. "From Shafts to Wires: Historical Perspective on Electrification," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(02), pages 347-372, June. [Downloadable!]
  4. Robert J. Gordon, 2000. "Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past?," NBER Working Papers 7833, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Paul A. David & Gavin Wright, 2005. "Early Twentieth Century Productivity Growth Dynamics: An Inquiry into the Economic History of “Our Ignorance”," Macroeconomics 0502023, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Paul M. Romer, 1987. "Crazy Explanations for the Productivity Slowdown," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1987, Volume 2, pages 163-210 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  1. Fabio Canova & Luca Gambetti & Evi Pappa, 2006. "The structural dynamics of output growth and inflation: some international evidence," Economics Working Papers 971, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Aug 2006. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Reto Foellmi und Josef Zweimüller, . "Inequality and Economic Growth - European Versus U.S. Experiences," IEW - Working Papers iewwp158, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - IEW. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. de la Croix, David & Docquier, Frédéric, 2003. "Diverging Patterns of Education Premium and School Attendance in France and the US: A Walrasian View," IZA Discussion Papers 846, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Pierre Fortin, 2003. "Differences in Annual Work Hours per Capita between the United States and Canada," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 6, pages 38-46, Spring. [Downloadable!]
  5. Bart van Ark, 2006. "Europe's Productivity Gap: Catching Up or Getting Stuck?," Economics Program Working Papers 06-02, The Conference Board, Economics Program. [Downloadable!]
  6. Eijffinger, Sylvester C.W. & Rossi, Alberto G.P., 2006. "Structural reforms and growth : product and labor market deregulations," Discussion Paper 112, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Lagerlöf, Nils-Petter & Basher, Syed A., 2005. "Geography, population density, and per-capita income gaps across US states and Canadian provinces," MPRA Paper 369, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Sep 2006. [Downloadable!]
  8. Karl Aiginger, 2003. "Insufficient investment into future growth: the forgotten cause of low growth in Germany," Economics working papers 2003-14, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria. [Downloadable!]
  9. Olivier Blanchard, 2004. "The Economic Future of Europe," NBER Working Papers 10310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Cormac Ó Gráda, 2005. "You Take the High Road and I’ll Take the Low Road - Economic Success and Wellbeing in the Longer Run," Working Papers 200510, School Of Economics, University College Dublin. [Downloadable!]
  11. Ian W. McLean, 2005. "Why Was Australia So Rich?," Development and Comp Systems 0509003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  12. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2005. "The Unsustainable US Current Account Position Revisited," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series 1063, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Michael Huberman & Chris Minns, 2005. "Hours of Work in Old and New Worlds: The Long View, 1870-2000," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp95, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
  14. Karl Aiginger, 2004. "The three tier strategy followed by successful European countries in the 1990s," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 18(4), pages 399-422, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Cowling, Keith & Poolsombat, Rattanasuda, 2007. "Advertising And Labour Supply : Why Do Americans Work Such Long Hours?," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 789, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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