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Was There a Nasdaq Bubble in the Late 1990s?

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Lubos Pastor
Pietro Veronesi

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Abstract

Not necessarily. The fundamental value of a firm increases with uncertainty about average future profitability, and this uncertainty was unusually high in the late 1990s. We calibrate a stock valuation model that includes this uncertainty, and show that the uncertainty needed to match the observed Nasdaq valuations at their peak is high but plausible. The high uncertainty might also explain the unusually high return volatility of Nasdaq stocks in the late 1990s. Uncertainty has the biggest effect on stock prices when the equity premium is low.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 10581.

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Date of creation: Jun 2004
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10581

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G0 - Financial Economics - - General
G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Jose A. Scheinkman & Wei Xiong, 2003. "Overconfidence and Speculative Bubbles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(6), pages 1183-1219, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Peter M. Garber, 2001. "Famous First Bubbles: The Fundamentals of Early Manias," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262571536.
  3. Owen A. Lamont & Richard H. Thaler, 2001. "Can the Market Add and Subtract? Mispricing in Tech Stock Carve-Outs," NBER Working Papers 8302, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Michael J. Cooper, 2001. "A Rose.com by Any Other Name," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(6), pages 2371-2388, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Allen, Franklin & Gorton, Gary, 1993. "Churning Bubbles," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 60(4), pages 813-36, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Peter C.B. Phillips & Yangru Wu & Jun Yu, 2009. "Explosive Behavior in the 1990s Nasdaq: When Did Exuberance Escalate Asset Values?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1699, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Boyan Jovanovic, 2004. "The Pre-Producers," NBER Working Papers 10771, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Kevin J. Lansing, 2008. "Speculative growth and overreaction to technology shocks," Working Paper Series 2008-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
  4. Moeller, Sara B. & Schilngemann, Frederik P. & Stulz, Rene M., 2004. "Do Acquirers with More Uncertain Growth Prospects Gain Less from Acquisitions?," Working Paper Series 2004-19, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Zhu Wang, 2005. "Technological innovation and market turbulence: the dot-com experience," Payments System Research Working Paper PSR WP 05-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Bask, Mikael, 2009. "Monetary Policy, Stock Price Misalignments and Macroeconomic Instability," Working Papers 540, Hanken School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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