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On the Monetization of Deficits

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  • Alan S. Blinder

Abstract

Whether or not a deficit is monetized is often thought to have important macroeconomic ramifications. This paper is organized around two questions.The first is: Does monetization matter?, or morespecifically, For a given budget deficit, do nominal or real variables behave differently depending on whether deficits are monetized or not? Virtually all macro models givean affirmative answer. After sorting out some theoretical issues that arise in a dynamic context, I present some new time series evidence which suggests that monetization matters mostly for nominal variables.The second question is: What factors determine how much monetization the Federal Reserve will do?After discussing some normative rules, I offer a game-theoretic argument to explain why a central bank may choose not to monetize deficits at all and may even contract bank reserves when the government raises its deficit. The empirical work turns up a surprisingly systematic link between budget deficits and growth in reserves. This relationship suggests that the Federal Reserve monetizes deficits less when inflation is high and when government purchases are growing rapidly.

Suggested Citation

  • Alan S. Blinder, 1982. "On the Monetization of Deficits," NBER Working Papers 1052, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1052
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    16. Alan S. Blinder, 1982. "Issues in the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 3-46.
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    Cited by:

    1. Luigi Spaventa, 2013. "The growth of public debt in Italy: past experience, perspectives and policy problems," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 66(266), pages 291-324.
    2. Preston J. Miller, 1983. "Higher deficit policies lead to higher inflation," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 7(Win).
    3. Rudi Dornbusch, 1998. "Debt and Monetary Policy: The Policy Issues," International Economic Association Series, in: Guillermo Calvo & Mervyn King (ed.), The Debt Burden and its Consequences for Monetary Policy, chapter 1, pages 3-27, Palgrave Macmillan.
    4. Ronald Hoffman & Mickey D. Levy, 1984. "Economic And Budget Issues For Deficit Policy," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 3(1), pages 96-114, September.
    5. Michael Massourakis & Farahmand Rezvani & Tadashi Yamada, 1984. "Occupation, Race, Unemployment and Crime In a Dynamic System," NBER Working Papers 1256, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    7. Daniel L. Thornton, 2010. "Monetizing the debt," Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    8. Blinder, Alan S & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1983. "Money, Credit Constraints, and Economic Activity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(2), pages 297-302, May.

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