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Interpreting Tests of the Convergence Hypothesis

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Author Info
Andrew B. Bernard
Steven N. Durlauf

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Abstract

This paper provides a framework for understanding the cross- section and time series approaches which have been used to test the convergence hypothesis. First, we present two definitions of convergence which capture the implications of the neoclassical growth model for the relationship between current and future cross-country output differences. Second, we identify how the cross-section and time series approaches relate to these definitions. Cross-section tests are shown to be associated with a weaker notion of convergence than time series tests. Third, we show how these alternative approaches make different assumptions on whether the data are well characterized by a limiting distribution. As a result, the choice of an appropriate testing framework is shown to depend on both the specific null and alternative hypotheses under consideration as well as on the initial conditions characterizing the data being studied.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Technical Working Papers with number 0159.

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Date of creation: Jun 1994
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Publication status: published as Bernard, Andrew B. and Steven N. Durlauf. "Interpreting Tests Of The Convergence Hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, 1996, v71(1&2,Mar/Apr), 161-173.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberte:0159

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C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General

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  1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-37, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Jones, Larry E & Manuelli, Rodolfo E, 1990. "A Convex Model of Equilibrium Growth: Theory and Policy Implications," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 1008-38, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Quah, Danny, 1993. "Galton's Fallacy and Tests of the Convergence Hypothesis," CEPR Discussion Papers 820, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. D Quah, 1996. "Convergence," CEP Discussion Papers 0290, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
  5. Azariadis, Costas & Drazen, Allan, 1990. "Threshold Externalities in Economic Development," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 105(2), pages 501-26, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Murphy, Kevin M & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1989. "Industrialization and the Big Push," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(5), pages 1003-26, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Baumol, William J, 1986. "Productivity Growth, Convergence, and Welfare: What the Long-run Data Show," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(5), pages 1072-85, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Mankiw, N Gregory & Romer, David & Weil, David N, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-37, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Barro, R.J. & Sala-I-Martin, X., 1991. "Convergence," Papers 645, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
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  11. Barro, Robert J, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(2), pages 407-43, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Barro, R.J. & Sala-I-Martin, X., 1991. "Convergence Across States and Regions," Papers 629, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
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  13. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Bernard, A.B. & Durlauf, S.N., 1993. "Convergence in International Output," Working papers 93-7, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
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