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A Utility Based Comparison of Some Models of Exchange Rate Volatility

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Author Info
Kenneth D. West
Hali J. Edison
Dongchul Cho

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Abstract

When estimates of variances are used to make asset allocation decisions, underestimates of population variances lead to lower expected utility than equivalent overestimates: a utility based criterion is asymmetric, unlike standard criteria such as mean squared error. To illustrate how to estimate a utility based criterion, we use five bilateral weekly dollar exchange rates, 1973-1989, and the corresponding pair of Eurodeposit rates. Of homoskedastic, GARCH, autoregressive and nonpararnetric models for the conditional variance of each exchange rate, GARCI-J models tend to produce the highest utility, on average. A mean squared error criterion also favors GARCH, but not as sharply.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Technical Working Papers with number 0128.

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Date of creation: Nov 1992
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberte:0128

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  3. Meese, Richard A & Rose, Andrew K, 1991. "An Empirical Assessment of Non-linearities in Models of Exchange Rate Determination," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(3), pages 603-19, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Pagan, Adrian R. & Schwert, G. William, 1990. "Alternative models for conditional stock volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 267-290. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Benjamin M. Friedman & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 1988. "Time-Varying Risk Perceptions and the Pricing of Risky Assets," NBER Working Papers 2694, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Schwert, G. William, 1989. "Business cycles, financial crises, and stock volatility," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 83-125, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix," NBER Technical Working Papers 0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Robert F. Engle & Che-Hsiung Hong & Alex Kane, 1990. "Valuation of Variance Forecast with Simulated Option Markets," NBER Working Papers 3350, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Diebold, Francis X. & Nason, James A., 1990. "Nonparametric exchange rate prediction?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3-4), pages 315-332, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. McCulloch, Robert & Rossi, Peter E., 1990. "Posterior, predictive, and utility-based approaches to testing the arbitrage pricing theory," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 7-38. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Robert Engle & Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Modelling the persistence of conditional variances," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1-50. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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