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Efficient Estimation of Linear Asset Pricing Models with Moving-Average Errors

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Lars Peter Hansen
Kenneth J. Singleton

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Abstract

This paper explores in depth the nature of the conditional moment restrictions implied by log-linear intertemporal capital asset pricing models (ICAPMs) and shows that the generalized instrumental variables (GMM) estimators of these models (as typically implemented in practice) are inefficient. The moment conditions in the presence of temporally aggregated consumption are derived for two log-linear ICAPMs. The first is a continuous time model in which agents maximize expected utility. In the context of this model, we show that there are important asymmetries between the implied moment conditions for infinitely and finitely-lived securities. The second model assumes that agents maximize non-expected utility, and leads to a very similar econometric relation for the return on the wealth portfolio. Then we describe the efficiency bound (greatest lower bound for the asymptotic variances) of the CNN estimators of the preference parameters in these models. In addition, we calculate the efficient CNN estimators that attain this bound. Finally, we assess the gains in precision from using this optimal CNN estimator relative to the commonly used inefficient CMN estimators.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Technical Working Papers with number 0086.

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Date of creation: Mar 1997
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberte:0086

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  1. Arslan, Mesut Murat, 2007. "Dynamics of Sticky Information and Sticky Price Models in a New Keynesian DSGE Framework," MPRA Paper 5269, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  2. Robert F. Stambaugh, 1993. "Estimating Conditional Expectations when Volatility Fluctuates," NBER Technical Working Papers 0140, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Nour Meddahi, 2000. "Temporal Aggregation of Volatility Models," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1903, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  4. Kenneth D. West, 1995. "Another Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator," NBER Technical Working Papers 0183, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Darrell Duffie & Kenneth J. Singleton, 1990. "Simulated Moments Estimation of Markov Models of Asset Prices," NBER Technical Working Papers 0087, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Nour Meddahi, 2002. "ARMA Representation of Integrated and Realized Variances," CIRANO Working Papers 2002s-93, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Chris Neely & Amlan Roy & Charles Whiteman, 1999. "Risk aversion vs. intertemporal substitution: identification failure in the intertemporal consumption CAPM," Working Papers 1995-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Catherine Doz & Éric Renault, 2004. "Conditionally Heteroskedastic Factor Models: Identification and Instrumental Variables Estimation," CIRANO Working Papers 2004s-37, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
  11. Kenneth D. West & David W. Wilcox, 1995. "A Comparison of Alternative Instruments Variables Estimators of a Dynamic Linear Model," NBER Technical Working Papers 0176, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Nour Meddahi, 2001. "An Eigenfunction Approach for Volatility Modeling," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-70, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
  13. Catherine Doz & Eric Renault, 2004. "Conditionaly Heteroskedastic Factor Models : Identificationand Instrumental variables Estmation," THEMA Working Papers 2004-13, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise. [Downloadable!]
  14. Rao, B. Bhaskara & Sharma, Kanhaiya Lal, 2007. "Testing the permanent income hypothesis in the developing and developed countries: A comparison between Fiji and Australia," MPRA Paper 2725, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  15. Ruediger Bachmann & Ricardo J. Caballero & Eduardo Engel, 2006. "Lumpy Investment in Dynamic General Equilibrium," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1566, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Masasaki Fuse, 2004. "Estimating intertemporal substitution in Japan," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 267-269, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. B Bhaskara Rao, 2005. "Testing Permanent Income Hypothesis for Fiji," Macroeconomics 0511013, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  18. Elena Márquez de la Cruz, 2005. "La elasticidad de sustitución intertemporal y el consumo duradero: un análisis para el caso español," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 29(3), pages 455-481, September. [Downloadable!]
  19. Michael Kumhof & Douglas Laxton, 2005. "A Rational Expectations Model of Optimal Inflation Inertia," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 429, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  20. Orazio P. Attanasio & Hamish Low, 2004. "Estimating Euler Equations," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 7(2), pages 405-435, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Ruediger Bachmann & Ricardo J. Caballero & Eduardo M.R.A. Engel, 2006. "Aggregate Implications of Lumpy Investment: New Evidence and a DSGE Model," NBER Working Papers 12336, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Luis Felipe Céspedes & Michael Kumhof & Eric Parrado, 2003. "Pricing Policies and Inflation Inertia," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 232, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
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  23. Nour Meddahi, 2002. "ARMA Representation of Two-Factor Models," CIRANO Working Papers 2002s-92, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
  24. repec:att:wimass:1920120 is not listed on IDEAS
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