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Measuring inflation persistence: a structural time series approach

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Author Info
Maarten Dossche () (National Bank of Belgium, Research Department, Ghent University, Study Hive for Economic Research and Public Policy Analysis (SHERPPA))
Gerdie Everaert () (Ghent University, Study Hive for Economic Research and Public Policy Analysis (SHERPPA))

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Abstract

Time series estimates of inflation persistence incur an upward bias if shifts in the inflation target of the central bank remain unaccounted for. Using a structural time series approach we measure different sorts of inflation persistence allowing for an unobserved timevarying inflation target. Unobserved components are identified using Kalman filtering and smoothing techniques. Posterior densities of the model parameters and the unobserved components are obtained in a Bayesian framework based on importance sampling. We find that inflation persistence, expressed by the halflife of a shock, can range from 1 quarter in case of a costpush shock to several years for a shock to longrun inflation expectations or the output gap.

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Paper provided by National Bank of Belgium in its series Research series with number 200506-1.

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Length: 49 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nbb:reswpp:200506-1

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Related research
Keywords: Inflation persistence; inflation target; Kalman filter; Bayesian analysis.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Bayesian Analysis
C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Estimation
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Alonso Gomez & John M Maheu & Alex Maynard, 2008. "Improving Forecasts of Inflation using the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers tecipa-319, University of Toronto, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Frédéric Lagneaux, 2008. "Economic Importance of Belgian Transport Logistics," Documents series 200801-01, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  3. Frédéric Lagneaux, 2005. "Importance économique du Port Autonome de Liège: rapport 2003," Documents series 200510-1, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  4. Joachim Keller, 2008. "Agency problems in structured finance – a case study of European CLOs," Documents series 200808-22, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  5. Filippo Altissimo & Michael Ehrmann & Frank Smets, 2006. "Inflation persistence and price-setting behaviour in the euro area : a summary of the Inflation Persistence Network evidence," Research series 200610-7, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  6. Olivier Blanchard & Jordi Gali, 2006. "A new Keynesian model with unemployment," Research series 200610-4, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Janet Mitchell, 2005. "Financial intermediation theory and implications for the sources of value in structured finance markets," Documents series 200507-1, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  8. Joseph Plasmans & Tomasz Michalak & Jorge Fornero, 2006. "Simulation, estimation and welfare implications of monetary policies in a 3-country NOEM model," Research series 200610-6, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  9. Philippe Moës, 2008. "Multivariate structural time series models with dual cycles : implications for measurement of output gap and potential growth," Research series 200808-20, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  10. Harvey, A., 2008. "Modeling the Phillips curve with unobserved components," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0805, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
  11. Johan Devriese & Janet Mitchell, 2005. "Liquidity risk in securities settlement," Research series 200507-2, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Nancy Masschelein, 2007. "Monitoring pro-cyclicality under the capital requirements directive : preliminary concepts for developing a framework," Documents series 200711-22, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  13. Gianni Amisano & Oreste Tristani, 2007. "Euro area inflation persistence in an estimated nonlinear DSGE model," Working Paper Series 754, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Annick Bruggeman, 2007. "Can Excess Liquidity Signal an Asset Price Boom?," Research series 200708-08, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  15. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2006. "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?," NBER Working Papers 12324, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Philippe Moës, 2006. "The production function approach to the Belgian output gap, Estimation of a Multivariate Structural Time Series Model," Research series 200609-1, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
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  19. Carine Swartenbroekx, 2007. "The gas chain : influence of its specificities on the liberalisation process," Documents series 200711-24, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  20. Steffen Henzel, 2008. "Learning Trend Inflation – Can Signal Extraction Explain Survey Forecasts?," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper No. 55, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich. [Downloadable!]
  21. François Coppens & David Vivet, 2006. "The single European electricity market: A long road to convergence," Documents series 200605-3, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
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