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Reproductive Behaviour at the End of the World: The Effect of the Cuban Missile Crisis on U.S. Fertility

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  • Paul A. Raschky
  • Liang Choon Wang

Abstract

We exploit the timing of the Cuban Missile Crisis and the geographical variation in mortality risks individuals faced across states to analyze reproduction decisions. The results of a difference-in-differences approach show evidence that fertility increased in states that are geographically closer to Cuba and states with more military installations. The findings suggest that when facing high mortality risks, individuals might discount future at an extremely high rate and indulge in reproductive activities.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul A. Raschky & Liang Choon Wang, 2012. "Reproductive Behaviour at the End of the World: The Effect of the Cuban Missile Crisis on U.S. Fertility," Monash Economics Working Papers 54-12, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:mos:moswps:2012-54
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    File URL: http://www.buseco.monash.edu.au/eco/research/papers/2012/5412reproductiveraschkywang.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rodrigo R. Soares, 2005. "Mortality Reductions, Educational Attainment, and Fertility Choice," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 580-601, June.
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    4. Allison, Graham T., 1969. "Conceptual Models and the Cuban Missile Crisis," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 63(3), pages 689-718, November.
    5. Joseph Rodgers & Craig John & Ronnie Coleman, 2005. "Did fertility go up after the oklahoma city bombing? An analysis of births in metropolitan counties in Oklahoma, 1990–1999," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 42(4), pages 675-692, November.
    6. Emily Oster & Ira Shoulson & E. Ray Dorsey, 2012. "Limited Life Expectancy, Human Capital and Health Investments: Evidence from Huntington Disease," NBER Working Papers 17931, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem, 2002. "Does the Mortality Decline Promote Economic Growth?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 7(4), pages 411-439, December.
    8. Allison, Graham T., 1969. "Conceptual Models and the Cuban Missile Crisis," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 63(3), pages 689-718, September.
    9. Seema Jayachandran & Adriana Lleras-Muney, 2009. "Life Expectancy and Human Capital Investments: Evidence from Maternal Mortality Declines," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(1), pages 349-397.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Finer, David Andrew, 2022. "No Shock Waves through Wall Street? Market Responses to the Risk of Nuclear War," Working Papers 318, The University of Chicago Booth School of Business, George J. Stigler Center for the Study of the Economy and the State.
    2. Burdekin, Richard C.K. & Siklos, Pierre L., 2022. "Armageddon and the stock market: US, Canadian and Mexican market responses to the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 112-127.
    3. Tatsuki Inoue amd Erika Igarashi, 2023. "The far-reaching effects of bombing on fertility in mid-20th century Japan," Papers 2306.05770, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fertility; Mortality Risk; War;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior

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