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A Robustness Analysis of Newspaper-based Indices

Author

Listed:
  • Roman Valovic

    (Department of Informatics, Faculty of Business and Economics, Mendel University in Brno, Zemedelska 1, 613 00 Brno, Czech Republic)

  • Daniel Pastorek

    (Department of Finance, Faculty of Business and Economics, Mendel University in Brno, Zemedelska 1, 613 00 Brno, Czech Republic)

Abstract

In this paper, we subject the methodology for newspaper-based indices to several tests of robustness, to address the potential problems of this proposed approach. Firstly, we examine the strong dependency between the selected keywords and the entered query. We do this using state-of-the-art language models, such as BERT, to automatically select relevant articles to build the index. Secondly, we propose that the weighting of articles partly allows for the control of the context of the articles and potential errors in the incorrect identification of articles, which leads to more stable index results. Finally, we track composition changes in newspaper articles, which have been evolving over time. The implications of these tests may be of interest to the users of these indices as well as suggesting a future direction for this approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Roman Valovic & Daniel Pastorek, 2023. "A Robustness Analysis of Newspaper-based Indices," MENDELU Working Papers in Business and Economics 2023-89, Mendel University in Brno, Faculty of Business and Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:men:wpaper:89_2023
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    2. Azqueta-Gavaldon, Andres & Hirschbühl, Dominik & Onorante, Luca & Saiz, Lorena, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty in the euro area: an unsupervised machine learning approach," Working Paper Series 2359, European Central Bank.
    3. Kyle Jurado & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Serena Ng, 2015. "Measuring Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(3), pages 1177-1216, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    newspapers; economic-policy uncertainty; EPU index; NLP; text-mining; similarity search;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C80 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - General
    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions

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