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Playing by the rules? Agreement between predicted and observed binary choices

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  • Stephanie Thomas

Abstract

Empirical economics frequently involves testing whether the predictions of a theoretical model are realized under controlled conditions. This paper proposes a new method for assessing whether binary (‘Yes’/‘No’) observations ranging over a continuous covariate exhibit a discrete change which is consistent with an underlying theoretical model. An application using observations from a controlled laboratory environment illustrates the method, however, the methodology can be used for testing for a discrete change in any binary outcome variable which occurs over a continuous covariate such as medical practice guidelines, firm entry and exit decisions, labour market decisions and many others. The observations are optimally smoothed using a nonparametric approach which is demonstrated to be superior, judged by four common criteria for such settings. Next, using the smoothed observations, two novel methods for assessment of a step pattern are proposed. Finally, nonparametric bootstrapped confidence intervals are used to evaluate the match of the pattern of the observed responses to that predicted by the theoretical model. The key methodological contributions are the two innovative methods proposed for assessing the step pattern. The promise of this approach is illustrated in an application to a controlled experimental lab data set, while the methods are easily extendable to many other settings. Further, the results generated can be easily communicated to diverse audiences.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephanie Thomas, 2016. "Playing by the rules? Agreement between predicted and observed binary choices," Department of Economics Working Papers 2016-12, McMaster University.
  • Handle: RePEc:mcm:deptwp:2016-12
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    File URL: http://socserv.mcmaster.ca/econ/rsrch/papers/archive/McMasterEconWP2016-12.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Esmeralda A. Ramalho & Joaquim J. S. Ramalho, 2012. "Alternative Versions of the RESET Test for Binary Response Index Models: A Comparative Study," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 74(1), pages 107-130, February.
    2. Racine, Jeff & Li, Qi, 2004. "Nonparametric estimation of regression functions with both categorical and continuous data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 99-130, March.
    3. Hayfield, Tristen & Racine, Jeffrey S., 2008. "Nonparametric Econometrics: The np Package," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 27(i05).
    4. Buckley, Neil & Cuff, Katherine & Hurley, Jeremiah & Mestelman, Stuart & Thomas, Stephanie & Cameron, David, 2015. "Support for public provision of a private good with top-up and opt-out: A controlled laboratory experiment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 177-196.
    5. John G. Cragg & Russell S. Uhler, 1970. "The Demand for Automobiles," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 3(3), pages 386-406, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Stephanie Thomas, 2016. "A Standardized Method for the Evaluation of Adherence to Practice Guidelines," Department of Economics Working Papers 2016-14, McMaster University.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Evaluation of theoretical predictions; binary outcome data; applied nonparametric analysis; data from experiments;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
    • C9 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments

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