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The Outbreak of the Russian Banking Crisis

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  • Fidrmuc, Jarko
  • Süß, Philipp Johann

Abstract

Russian banks have been strongly influenced by the worldwide financial crisis which started in the second half of 2008. This was caused by a combination of domestic, regional and international factors. We estimate an early warning model for the Russian crisis. We identified 47 Russian banks which failed after September 2008. Using the Bankscope data set, we show that balance sheet indicators were informative about possible failures of these banks as early as 2006. The early predictive indicators include especially equity, net interest revenues, return on average equity, net loans, and loan loss reserves.

Suggested Citation

  • Fidrmuc, Jarko & Süß, Philipp Johann, 2009. "The Outbreak of the Russian Banking Crisis," Discussion Papers in Economics 10996, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:lmu:muenec:10996
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Evžen Kočenda & Ichiro Iwasaki, 2022. "Bank survival around the world: A meta‐analytic review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(1), pages 108-156, February.
    2. François Guillemin & Maria Semenova, 2020. "Transparency and market discipline: evidence from the Russian interbank market," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 219-251, June.
    3. Vernikov, Andrei, 2017. "The impact of state-controlled banks on the Russian banking sector," MPRA Paper 77155, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Deryugina, Elena B. & Ponomarenko, Alexey A., 2011. "Identifying structural shocks behind loan supply fluctuations in Russia," BOFIT Discussion Papers 20/2011, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    5. Deryugina, Elena B. & Ponomarenko, Alexey A., 2011. "Identifying structural shocks behind loan supply fluctuations in Russia," BOFIT Discussion Papers 20/2011, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    6. repec:zbw:bofitp:2011_020 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Mikko Makinen & Laura Solanko, 2018. "Determinants of Bank Closures: Do Levels or Changes of CAMEL Variables Matter?," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 77(2), pages 3-21, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Banking and financial crisis; early warning models; Russia; Logit.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities

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