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How Liquid Are UK Banks?

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Abstract

This paper uses a relatively new quantitative model for estimating UK banks' liquidity risk. The model is called the Exposure-Based Cash-Flow-at-Risk (CFaR) model, which not only measures a bank's liquidity risk tolerance, but also helps to improve liquidity risk management through the provision of additional risk exposure information. Using data for the period 1997-2010, we provide evidence that there is variable funding pressure across the UK banking industry, which is forecasted to be slightly illiquid with a small amount of expected cash outflow (i.e. £0.06 billion) in 2011. In our sample of the six biggest UK banks, only the HSBC maintains positive CFaR with 95% confidence, which means that there is only a 5% chance that HSBC's cash flow will drop below £0.67 billion by the end of 2011. RBS is expected to face the largest liquidity risk with a 5% chance that the bank will face a cash outflow that year in excess of £40.29 billion. Our estimates also suggest Lloyds TSB's cash flow is the most volatile of the six biggest UK banks, because it has the biggest deviation between its downside cash flow (i.e. CFaR) and expected cash flow.

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  • Meilin Yan & Maximilian J. B. Hall & Paul Turner, 2012. "How Liquid Are UK Banks?," Discussion Paper Series 2012_08, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Jun 2012.
    • Handle: RePEc:lbo:lbowps:2012_08
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    File URL: http://www.lboro.ac.uk/departments/sbe/RePEc/lbo/lbowps/YAN_WP2012_8.pdf
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    1. Iana Liadze & Ray Barrell & Professor E. Philip Davis, 2010. "The impact of global imbalances: Does the current account balance help to predict banking crises in OECD countries?," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 351, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    2. Isabelle Huault & V. Perret & S. Charreire-Petit, 2007. "Management," Post-Print halshs-00337676, HAL.
    3. Calomiris, Charles W & Kahn, Charles M, 1991. "The Role of Demandable Debt in Structuring Optimal Banking Arrangements," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(3), pages 497-513, June.
    4. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 2001. "Comparing Financial Systems," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262511258, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Karolina Patora, 2016. "What drives the liquidity position of foreign-owned banks? The case of Poland," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 6(6), pages 1-1.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    UK Balance Sheet Analysis; Liquidity Coverage; Net Cash Capital.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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