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About the criteria of output coincidence for forecasts to determine the orientation of the economy. Application for France, 1980-1997

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  • MESNARD, Louis de

    (LATEC - CNRS - Université de Bourgogne)

Abstract

This note indicates that the method of output coincidence for forecasts used to determine if sectors are demand-driven or supply-driven in an input-output framework mixes two effects, the structural effect (choosing between demand and supply driven models) and the effect of an exogenous factor (final demand or added-value). The note recalls that another method is possible, the comparison of the stability of technical and allocation coefficients, generalized by the biproportional filter: if for a sector, after biproportional filtering, column coefficients are more stable than row coefficients, then this sector is declared as not supply-driven (but one cannot decide that it is demand-driven anyway), and conversely. Keywords :Input-Output ; Demand ; Supply ; Change ; RAS ; Biproportion.

Suggested Citation

  • MESNARD, Louis de, 2000. "About the criteria of output coincidence for forecasts to determine the orientation of the economy. Application for France, 1980-1997," LATEC - Document de travail - Economie (1991-2003) 2000-04, LATEC, Laboratoire d'Analyse et des Techniques EConomiques, CNRS UMR 5118, Université de Bourgogne.
    • Handle: RePEc:lat:lateco:2000-04
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    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
    • D57 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Input-Output Tables and Analysis

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