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How Large Is the Housing Wealth Effect? A New Approach

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Christopher D. Carroll
Misuzu Otsuka
Jirka Slacalek

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Abstract

This paper presents a simple new method for estimating the size of ‘wealth effects?on aggregate consumption. The method exploits the well-documented sluggishness of consumption growth (often interpreted as ‘habits?in the asset pricing literature) to distinguish between short-run and long-run wealth effects. In U.S. data, we estimate that the immediate (next-quarter) marginal propensity to consume from a $1 change in housing wealth is about 2 cents, with a final longrun effect around 9 cents. Consistent with most recent studies, we find a housing wealth effect that is substantially larger than the stock wealth effect. We believe that our approach has sounder theoretical foundations than the currently popular cointegration-based estimation methods, because neither theory nor evidence provides any reason for faith in the existence of a stable cointegrating vector.

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Paper provided by The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics in its series Economics Working Paper Archive with number 535.

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Date of creation: Oct 2006
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Handle: RePEc:jhu:papers:535

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  4. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-87, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. F. Thomas Juster & Joseph P. Lupton & James P. Smith & Frank Stafford, 2006. "The Decline in Household Saving and the Wealth Effect," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(1), pages 20-27, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. John Muellbauer, 1988. "Habits, Rationality and Myopia in the Life Cycle Consumption Function," Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, ADRES, issue 9, pages 04, Janvier-M. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Alexander Ludwig & Torsten Sløk, 2004. "The Relationship between Stock Prices, House Prices and Consumption in OECD Countries," Topics in Macroeconomics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 4(1), pages 1114-1114. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Levin, Laurence, 1998. "Are assets fungible?: Testing the behavioral theory of life-cycle savings," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 59-83, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Joseph P. Byrne & E. Philip Davis, 2003. "Disaggregate Wealth and Aggregate Consumption: an Investigation of Empirical Relationships for the G7," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(2), pages 197-220, 05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Karen E. Dynan, 2000. "Habit Formation in Consumer Preferences: Evidence from Panel Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 391-406, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Karl E. Case, John M. Quigley, Robert J. Shiller., 2001. "Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus The Housing Market," Economics Working Papers E01-308, University of California at Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
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  21. repec:fth:harver:1435 is not listed on IDEAS
  22. Bruce E. Hansen, 2001. "The New Econometrics of Structural Change: Dating Breaks in U.S. Labour Productivity," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 117-128, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Lise Pichette & Dominique Tremblay, 2003. "Are Wealth Effects Important for Canada?," Working Papers 03-30, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
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  24. Martin Lettau & Sydney Ludvigson, 2003. "Understanding Trend and Cycle in Asset Values: Reevaluating the Wealth Effect on Consumption," NBER Working Papers 9848, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  25. Rudd, Jeremy & Whelan, Karl, 2002. "A Note on the Cointegration of Consumption, Income, and Wealth," Research Technical Papers 5/RT/02, Central Bank & Financial Services Authority of Ireland (CBFSAI). [Downloadable!]
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  26. Engelhardt, Gary V., 1996. "House prices and home owner saving behavior," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3-4), pages 313-336, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  27. John Campbell & Joao Cocco, 2004. "How Do House Prices Affect Consumption? Evidence from Micro Data," 2004 Meeting Papers 357a, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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  28. Disney, Richard & Andrew Henley & David Jevons, 2002. "House Price Shocks, Negative Equity and Household Consumption in the UK in the 1990s," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 64, Royal Economic Society. [Downloadable!]
  29. Christopher D. Carroll & Johns Hopkins University, 2006. "Sticky Expectations and Consumption Dynamics," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 21, Society for Computational Economics.
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  31. Flavin, Marjorie A, 1981. "The Adjustment of Consumption to Changing Expectations about Future Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 974-1009, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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