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False Consensus Beliefs and Populist Attitudes

Author

Listed:
  • Nils D. Steiner

    (Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz)

  • Claudia Landwehr

    (Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz)

  • Philipp Harms

    (Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz)

Abstract

A well-established finding from social psychology is that people tend to hold “false consensus beliefs”, that is, they regularly overestimate how many others agree with their own opinions. The consequences of such beliefs for how citizens assess democratic legitimacy have been left largely unexplored, however. We reason that false consensus beliefs may give citizens the erroneous impression that their political preferences are shared by most fellow citizens while political elites fail to follow this apparent will of the majority. False consensus beliefs might therefore play a central role in the development of populist attitudes to politics. Using original panel survey data from Germany, we document a robust relationship between false consensus beliefs and populist attitudes. As an indication of broader negative consequences for perceived legitimacy, we also find that individuals who hold false consensus beliefs score lower on external efficacy and political trust. Our findings suggest a novel cause of populist attitudes, rooted in humans' tendency to project own views onto others—a tendency that may be exacerbated by today's high-choice media environments.

Suggested Citation

  • Nils D. Steiner & Claudia Landwehr & Philipp Harms, 2024. "False Consensus Beliefs and Populist Attitudes," Working Papers 2403, Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz.
    • Handle: RePEc:jgu:wpaper:2403
    as

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    File URL: https://download.uni-mainz.de/RePEc/pdf/Discussion_Paper_2403.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sveinung Arnesen & Troy S Broderstad & Mikael P Johannesson & Jonas Linde, 2019. "Conditional legitimacy: How turnout, majority size, and outcome affect perceptions of legitimacy in European Union membership referendums," European Union Politics, , vol. 20(2), pages 176-197, June.
    2. Pereira, Miguel M., 2021. "Understanding and Reducing Biases in Elite Beliefs About the Electorate," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 115(4), pages 1308-1324, November.
    3. Broockman, David E. & Skovron, Christopher, 2018. "Bias in Perceptions of Public Opinion among Political Elites," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 112(3), pages 542-563, August.
    4. Wuttke, Alexander & Schimpf, Christian & Schoen, Harald, 2020. "When the Whole Is Greater than the Sum of Its Parts: On the Conceptualization and Measurement of Populist Attitudes and Other Multidimensional Constructs," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 114(2), pages 356-374, May.
    5. David Y. Yang & Leonardo Bursztyn, 2022. "Misperceptions About Others," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 425-452, August.
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    Keywords

    False consensus beliefs; beliefs about public opinion; populist attitudes; perceived responsiveness; belief polarization; political support;
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