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Die Bedeutung individuellen Verhaltens über den Jahreswechsel für die Weiterentwicklung der Covid-19-Pandemie in Deutschland

Author

Listed:
  • Gabler, Janos

    (IZA)

  • Raabe, Tobias

    (quantilope)

  • Röhrl, Klara

    (University of Bonn)

  • Gaudecker, Hans-Martin von

    (University of Bonn)

Abstract

Wir nutzen ein neues Modell, um den Verlauf der Covid-19-Pandemie über die Weihnachtstage und den Jahreswechsel vorherzusagen. Während die weitgehende Schließung der Betriebe neben den verlängerten Schulferien die Infektionszahlen drücken, werden Reiseaktivitäten und Weihnachtsfeiern zu einem starken Anstieg führen. Unsere Ergebnisse geben wenig Anlass zur Hoffnung, dass die Infektionszahlen über die Weihnachtstage und den Jahreswechsel nennenswert zurückgehen. Eher dürfte das Gegenteil der Fall sein. Einen großen Effekt kann die private Kontaktnachverfolgung ausmachen. Wenn alle Teilnehmer von Weihnachtsfeierlichkeiten über einen später auftretenden Infektionsverdacht (Symptome oder positiver Test) umgehend benachrichtigt werden und ihre Kontakte reduzieren, könnten mehrere hunderttausend Infektionen in der ersten Januarhälfte vermieden werden.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabler, Janos & Raabe, Tobias & Röhrl, Klara & Gaudecker, Hans-Martin von, 2020. "Die Bedeutung individuellen Verhaltens über den Jahreswechsel für die Weiterentwicklung der Covid-19-Pandemie in Deutschland," IZA Standpunkte 99, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
  • Handle: RePEc:iza:izasps:sp99
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Silva, Petrônio C.L. & Batista, Paulo V.C. & Lima, Hélder S. & Alves, Marcos A. & Guimarães, Frederico G. & Silva, Rodrigo C.P., 2020. "COVID-ABS: An agent-based model of COVID-19 epidemic to simulate health and economic effects of social distancing interventions," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    2. Gabler, Janos & Raabe, Tobias & Röhrl, Klara, 2020. "People Meet People: A Microlevel Approach to Predicting the Effect of Policies on the Spread of COVID-19," IZA Discussion Papers 13899, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; agent based simulation model; public health measures;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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