IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iza/izadps/dp12458.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Practical Significance, Meta-Analysis and the Credibility of Economics

Author

Listed:
  • Stanley, T. D.

    (Deakin University)

  • Doucouliagos, Chris

    (Deakin University)

Abstract

Recently, there has been much discussion about replicability and credibility. By integrating the full research record, increasing statistical power, reducing bias and enhancing credibility, meta-analysis is widely regarded as 'best evidence'. Through Monte Carlo simulation, closely calibrated on the typical conditions found among 6,700 economics research papers, we find that large biases and high rates of false positives will often be found by conventional meta-analysis methods. Nonetheless, the routine application of meta-regression analysis and considerations of practical significance largely restore research credibility.

Suggested Citation

  • Stanley, T. D. & Doucouliagos, Chris, 2019. "Practical Significance, Meta-Analysis and the Credibility of Economics," IZA Discussion Papers 12458, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
  • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12458
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://docs.iza.org/dp12458.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. H. Spencer Banzhaf & V. Kerry Smith, 2007. "Meta-analysis in model implementation: choice sets and the valuation of air quality improvements," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(6), pages 1013-1031.
    2. John P A Ioannidis, 2005. "Why Most Published Research Findings Are False," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 2(8), pages 1-1, August.
    3. Garret Christensen & Edward Miguel, 2018. "Transparency, Reproducibility, and the Credibility of Economics Research," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 56(3), pages 920-980, September.
    4. Lichter, Andreas & Peichl, Andreas & Siegloch, Sebastian, 2015. "The own-wage elasticity of labor demand: A meta-regression analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 94-119.
    5. T. D. Stanley & Stephen B. Jarrell, 2005. "Meta‐Regression Analysis: A Quantitative Method of Literature Surveys," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 299-308, July.
    6. Card, David & Krueger, Alan B, 1995. "Time-Series Minimum-Wage Studies: A Meta-analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(2), pages 238-243, May.
    7. W. Kip Viscusi, 2015. "The Role of Publication Selection Bias in Estimates of the Value of a Statistical Life," American Journal of Health Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(1), pages 27-52, Winter.
    8. Colin B. Begg & Jesse A. Berlin, 1988. "Publication Bias: A Problem in Interpreting Medical Data," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 151(3), pages 419-445, May.
    9. Leamer, Edward E, 1983. "Let's Take the Con Out of Econometrics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 31-43, March.
    10. Sebastian Gechert, 2015. "What fiscal policy is most effective? A meta-regression analysis," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(3), pages 553-580.
    11. Kevin Croke & Joan Hamory Hicks & Eric Hsu & Michael Kremer & Ricardo Maertens & Edward Miguel & Witold Więcek, 2016. "Meta-Analysis and Public Policy: Reconciling the Evidence on Deworming," NBER Working Papers 22382, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. de Linde Leonard, Megan & Stanley, T.D., 2015. "Married with children: What remains when observable biases are removed from the reported male marriage wage premium," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 72-80.
    13. T. D. Stanley, 2008. "Meta‐Regression Methods for Detecting and Estimating Empirical Effects in the Presence of Publication Selection," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(1), pages 103-127, February.
    14. Raj Chetty, 2012. "Bounds on Elasticities With Optimization Frictions: A Synthesis of Micro and Macro Evidence on Labor Supply," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(3), pages 969-1018, May.
    15. Colin F. Camerer & Anna Dreber & Felix Holzmeister & Teck-Hua Ho & Jürgen Huber & Magnus Johannesson & Michael Kirchler & Gideon Nave & Brian A. Nosek & Thomas Pfeiffer & Adam Altmejd & Nick Buttrick , 2018. "Evaluating the replicability of social science experiments in Nature and Science between 2010 and 2015," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 2(9), pages 637-644, September.
    16. Abel Brodeur & Mathias Lé & Marc Sangnier & Yanos Zylberberg, 2016. "Star Wars: The Empirics Strike Back," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 1-32, January.
    17. Rebecca M Turner & Sheila M Bird & Julian P T Higgins, 2013. "The Impact of Study Size on Meta-analyses: Examination of Underpowered Studies in Cochrane Reviews," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(3), pages 1-8, March.
    18. Anne-Célia Disdier & Keith Head, 2008. "The Puzzling Persistence of the Distance Effect on Bilateral Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(1), pages 37-48, February.
    19. Duflo, Esther & Glennerster, Rachel & Kremer, Michael, 2008. "Using Randomization in Development Economics Research: A Toolkit," Handbook of Development Economics, in: T. Paul Schultz & John A. Strauss (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 61, pages 3895-3962, Elsevier.
    20. David Card & Jochen Kluve & Andrea Weber, 2018. "What Works? A Meta Analysis of Recent Active Labor Market Program Evaluations," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 894-931.
    21. Dale Belman & Paul J. Wolfson, 2014. "What Does the Minimum Wage Do?," Books from Upjohn Press, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, number wdmwd, November.
    22. Zacharias Maniadis & Fabio Tufano & John A. List, 2017. "To Replicate or Not To Replicate? Exploring Reproducibility in Economics through the Lens of a Model and a Pilot Study," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(605), pages 209-235, October.
    23. De Long, J Bradford & Lang, Kevin, 1992. "Are All Economic Hypotheses False?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(6), pages 1257-1272, December.
    24. T. D. Stanley, 2005. "Beyond Publication Bias," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 309-345, July.
    25. Isaiah Andrews & Maximilian Kasy, 2019. "Identification of and Correction for Publication Bias," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(8), pages 2766-2794, August.
    26. Croke,Kevin & Hicks,Joan Hamory & Hsu,Eric & Kremer,Michael Robert & Miguel,Edward A., 2016. "Does mass deworming affect child nutrition ? meta-analysis, cost-effectiveness, and statistical power," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7921, The World Bank.
    27. Feige, Edgar L, 1975. "The Consequences of Journal Editorial Policies and a Suggestion for Revision," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(6), pages 1291-1295, December.
    28. Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1997. "I Just Ran Two Million Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 178-183, May.
    29. John P. A. Ioannidis & T. D. Stanley & Hristos Doucouliagos, 2017. "The Power of Bias in Economics Research," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(605), pages 236-265, October.
    30. T.D. Stanley & Hristos Doucouliagos & Margaret Giles & Jost Heckemeyer & Robert Johnston & Patrice Laroche & Jon Nelson & Martin Paldam & Jacques Poot & Geoff Pugh & Randall Rosenberger & Katja Rost, 2013. "Meta-analysis of economics research reporting guidelines," Post-Print hal-02137661, HAL.
    31. Doucouliagos, Chris & Stanley, T.D. & Giles, Margaret, 2012. "Are estimates of the value of a statistical life exaggerated?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 197-206.
    32. Zacharias Maniadis & Fabio Tufano & John A. List, 2017. "To Replicate or Not To Replicate? Exploring Reproducibility in Economics through the Lens of a Model and a Pilot Study," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(605), pages 209-235, October.
    33. Tomáš Havránek, 2015. "Measuring Intertemporal Substitution: The Importance Of Method Choices And Selective Reporting," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 13(6), pages 1180-1204, December.
    34. Chletsos, Michael & Giotis, Georgios P., 2015. "The employment effect of minimum wage using 77 international studies since 1992: A meta-analysis," MPRA Paper 61321, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    35. Hristos Doucouliagos & T. D. Stanley, 2009. "Publication Selection Bias in Minimum‐Wage Research? A Meta‐Regression Analysis," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 47(2), pages 406-428, June.
    36. Stephan B. Bruns, 2017. "Meta-Regression Models and Observational Research," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 79(5), pages 637-653, October.
    37. Schmidt, Frank L. & Viswesvaran, Chockalingam & Ones, Deniz S. & Le, Huy, 2017. "A Failed Challenge to Validity Generalization: Addressing a Fundamental Misunderstanding of the Nature of VG," Industrial and Organizational Psychology, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(3), pages 488-495, September.
    38. T.D. Stanley & Hristos Doucouliagos & Margaret Giles & Jost H. Heckemeyer & Robert J. Johnston & Patrice Laroche & Jon P. Nelson & Martin Paldam & Jacques Poot & Geoff Pugh & Randall S. Rosenberger & , 2013. "Meta-Analysis Of Economics Research Reporting Guidelines," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(2), pages 390-394, April.
    39. Zacharias Maniadis & Fabio Tufano & John A. List, 2014. "One Swallow Doesn't Make a Summer: New Evidence on Anchoring Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(1), pages 277-290, January.
    40. Zacharias Maniadis & Fabio Tufano & John A. List, 2015. "How to Make Experimental Economics Research More Reproducible: Lessons from Other Disciplines and a New Proposal," Research in Experimental Economics, in: Replication in Experimental Economics, volume 18, pages 215-230, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Obsa Urgessa Ayana & Jima Degaga, 2022. "Effects of rural electrification on household welfare: a meta-regression analysis," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 69(2), pages 209-261, June.
    2. Grover, Arti & Lall, Somik & Timmis, Jonathan, 2023. "Agglomeration economies in developing countries: A meta-analysis," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    3. Dennis Guignet & Matthew T. Heberling & Michael Papenfus & Olivia Griot, 2022. "Property Values, Water Quality, and Benefit Transfer: A Nationwide Meta-analysis," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 98(2), pages 191-218.
    4. Porras-Arena, M. Sylvina & Martín-Román, Ángel L., 2023. "The heterogeneity of Okun's law: A metaregression analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    5. Grover,Arti Goswami & Lall,Somik V. & Timmis,Jonathan David, 2021. "Agglomeration Economies in Developing Countries : A Meta-Analysis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9730, The World Bank.
    6. Laure de Batz & Evžen Kočenda & Evžen Kocenda, 2023. "Financial Crime and Punishment: A Meta-Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 10528, CESifo.
    7. De Filippis, Fabrizio & Giua, Mara & Salvatici, Luca & Vaquero-Piñeiro, Cristina, 2022. "The international trade impacts of Geographical Indications: Hype or hope?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Isaiah Andrews & Maximilian Kasy, 2019. "Identification of and Correction for Publication Bias," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(8), pages 2766-2794, August.
    2. Eszter Czibor & David Jimenez‐Gomez & John A. List, 2019. "The Dozen Things Experimental Economists Should Do (More of)," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 86(2), pages 371-432, October.
    3. Christopher Snyder & Ran Zhuo, 2018. "Sniff Tests as a Screen in the Publication Process: Throwing out the Wheat with the Chaff," NBER Working Papers 25058, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Nazila Alinaghi & W. Robert Reed, 2021. "Taxes and Economic Growth in OECD Countries: A Meta-analysis," Public Finance Review, , vol. 49(1), pages 3-40, January.
    5. Snyder, Christopher & Zhuo, Ran, 2018. "Sniff Tests in Economics: Aggregate Distribution of Their Probability Values and Implications for Publication Bias," MetaArXiv 8vdrh, Center for Open Science.
    6. Ali Elminejad & Tomas Havranek & Roman Horvath & Zuzana Irsova, 2023. "Intertemporal Substitution in Labor Supply: A Meta-Analysis," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 1095-1113, December.
    7. Tomas Havranek & Zuzana Irsova & Lubica Laslopova & Olesia Zeynalova, 2020. "Skilled and Unskilled Labor Are Less Substitutable than Commonly Thought," Working Papers IES 2020/29, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Sep 2020.
    8. Carina Neisser, 2021. "The Elasticity of Taxable Income: A Meta-Regression Analysis [The top 1% in international and historical perspective]," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(640), pages 3365-3391.
    9. Abel Brodeur & Mathias Lé & Marc Sangnier & Yanos Zylberberg, 2016. "Star Wars: The Empirics Strike Back," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 1-32, January.
    10. Stephan B. Bruns, 2013. "Identifying Genuine Effects in Observational Research by Means of Meta-Regressions," Jena Economics Research Papers 2013-040, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    11. Geyer-Klingeberg, Jerome & Hang, Markus & Rathgeber, Andreas, 2020. "Meta-analysis in finance research: Opportunities, challenges, and contemporary applications," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    12. Abel Brodeur & Nikolai Cook & Anthony Heyes, 2020. "Methods Matter: p-Hacking and Publication Bias in Causal Analysis in Economics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(11), pages 3634-3660, November.
    13. Lan Nguyen, Thi Mai & Papyrakis, Elissaios & van Bergeijk, Peter A.G., 2021. "Publication bias in the price effects of monetary policy: A meta-regression analysis for emerging and developing economies," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 567-583.
    14. Mattia Filomena & Matteo Picchio, 2023. "Retirement and health outcomes in a meta‐analytical framework," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(4), pages 1120-1155, September.
    15. Ugur, Mehmet & Trushin, Eshref & Solomon, Edna & Guidi, Francesco, 2016. "R&D and productivity in OECD firms and industries: A hierarchical meta-regression analysis," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(10), pages 2069-2086.
    16. Tomas Kucera, 2020. "Are Employment Effects of Minimum Wage the Same Across the EU? A Meta-Regression Analysis," Working Papers IES 2020/2, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jan 2020.
    17. Cazachevici, Alina & Havranek, Tomas & Horvath, Roman, 2020. "Remittances and economic growth: A meta-analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    18. Dominika Ehrenbergerova & Josef Bajzik & Tomas Havranek, 2023. "When Does Monetary Policy Sway House Prices? A Meta-Analysis," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(2), pages 538-573, June.
    19. Cristina Blanco-Perez & Abel Brodeur, 2020. "Publication Bias and Editorial Statement on Negative Findings," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 130(629), pages 1226-1247.
    20. Abel Brodeur & Nikolai Cook & Carina Neisser, 2022. "P-Hacking, Data Type and Data-Sharing Policy," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 200, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    meta-analysis; meta-regression; publication bias; credibility; simulations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C40 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Lists

    This item is featured on the following reading lists, Wikipedia, or ReplicationWiki pages:
    1. Meta-Research in Economics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12458. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Holger Hinte (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/izaaade.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.