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Powerful Trend Function Tests That are Robust to Strong Serial Correlation with an Application to the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis

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Author Info
Bunzel, Helle
Vogelsang, Timothy J.

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Abstract

In this paper we propose tests for hypotheses regarding the parameters of the deterministic trend function of a univariate time series. The tests do not require knowledge of the form of serial correlation in the data and they are robust to strong serial correlation. The data can contain a unit root and the tests still have the correct size asymptotically. The tests we analyze are standard heteroskedasticity autocorrelation (HAC) robust tests based on nonparametric kernel variance estimators. We analyze these tests using the …xed-b asymptotic framework recently proposed by Kiefer and Vogelsang (2002). This analysis allows us to analyze the power properties of the tests with regards to bandwidth and kernel choices. Our analysis shows that among popular kernels, there are speci…c kernel and bandwidth choices that deliver tests with maximal power within a speci…c class of tests. Based on the theoretical results, we propose a data dependent bandwidth rule that maximizes integrated power. Our recommended test is shown to have power that dominates a related test proposed by Vogelsang (1998). We apply the recommended test to the logarithm of a net barter terms of trade series and we …nd that this series has a statistically signi…cant negative slope. This …nding is consistent with the well known Prebisch-Singer hypothesis.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Iowa State University, Department of Economics in its series Staff General Research Papers with number 10353.

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Date of creation: 08 Apr 2003
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Publication status: Published in Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, October 2005, Vol. 23, No. 4, pp. 381-394.
Handle: RePEc:isu:genres:10353

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General
C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
F1 - International Economics - - Trade
F2 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Peter C.B. Phillips & Victor Solo, 1989. "Asymptotics for Linear Processes," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 932, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  2. Kiefer, Nicholas M. & Vogelsang, Timothy J., 2005. "A New Asymptotic Theory For Heteroskedasticity-Autocorrelation Robust Tests," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(06), pages 1130-1164, December. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Powell, Andrew, 1991. "Commodity and Developing Country Terms of Trade: What Does the Long Run Show?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(409), pages 1485-96, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Ardeni, Pier Giorgio & Wright, Brian, 1992. "The Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis: A Reappraisal Independent of Stationarity Hypotheses," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(413), pages 803-12, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Spraos, John, 1980. "The Statistical Debate on the Net Barter Terms of Trade between Primary Commodities and Manufactures," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(357), pages 107-28, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Lutz, Matthias G, 1999. "A General Test of the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis," Review of Development Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 3(1), pages 44-57, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Sapsford, D, 1985. "The Statistical Debate on the Net Barter Terms of Trade between Primary Commodities and Manufactures: A Comment and Some Additional Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 95(379), pages 781-88, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Cuddington, John T & Urzua, Carlos M, 1989. "Trends and Cycles in the Net Barter Terms of Trade: A New Approach," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(396), pages 426-42, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Timothy J. Vogelsang, 1998. "Trend Function Hypothesis Testing in the Presence of Serial Correlation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 123-148, January.
  11. Breitung, Jorg, 2002. "Nonparametric tests for unit roots and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 343-363, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ozgen Sayginsoy, 2004. "Powerful and Serial Correlation Robust Tests of the Economic Convergence Hypothesis," Discussion Papers 04-07, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Fabio Busetti & Andrew Harvey, 2007. "Testing for trend," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 614, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Ozgen Sayginsoy, 2005. "Powerful and Serial Correlation Robust Tests of the Economic Convergence Hypothesis," Econometrics 0503014, EconWPA, revised 11 Mar 2005. [Downloadable!]
  4. Ozgen Sayginsoy & Tim Vogelsang, 2004. "Powerful Tests of Structural Change That are Robust to Strong Serial Correlation," Discussion Papers 04-08, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Hashimzade, Nigar & Vogelsang, Timothy, 2006. "Fixed-b Asymptotic Approximation of the Sampling Behavior of Nonparametric Spectral Density Estimators," Working Papers 06-04, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Patrick Marsh, . "The Available Information for Invariant Tests of a Unit Root," Discussion Papers 05/03, Department of Economics, University of York. [Downloadable!]
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