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Regime Switching, Learning, and the Great Moderation

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  • James Murray

    (Indiana University Bloomington)

Abstract

This paper examines the "bad luck" explanation for changing volatility in U.S. inflation and output when agents do not have rational expectations, but instead form expectations through least squares learning with an endogenously changing learning gain. It has been suggested that this type of endogenously changing learning mechanism can create periods of excess volatility without the need for changes in the variance of the underlying shocks. Bad luck is modeled into a standard New Keynesian model by augmenting it with two states that evolve according to a Markov chain, where one state is characterized by large variances for structural shocks, and the other state has relatively smaller variances. To assess whether learning can explain the Great Moderation, the New Keynesian model with volatility regime switching and dynamic gain learning is estimated by maximum likelihood. The results show that learning does lead to lower variances for the shocks in the volatile regime, but changes in regime is still significant in differences in volatility from the 1970s and after the 1980s.

Suggested Citation

  • James Murray, 2008. "Regime Switching, Learning, and the Great Moderation," CAEPR Working Papers 2008-011, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
  • Handle: RePEc:inu:caeprp:2008011
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    File URL: https://caepr.indiana.edu/RePEc/inu/caeprp/caepr2008-011.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Agustín Arias & Markus Kirchner, 2019. "Shifting Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 829, Central Bank of Chile.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Learning; regime switching; great moderation; New Keynesian model; maximum likelihood;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

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