IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/inf/wpaper/2016.01.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Does Inequality Lead to Credit Growth? Testing the Rajan Hypothesis Using State-Level Data

Author

Listed:
  • Steven Yamarik

    (California State University)

  • Makram El Shagi

    (Henan UniversityAuthor-Name: Guy Yamashiro)

Abstract

This paper uses state-level data to test the Rajan hypothesis, from his book Fault Lines, that an increase in inequality can lead to a credit boom. Using dynamic heterogeneous panel estimation methods (i.e. MG, PMG, DFE), we find a significant negative long-run relationship between inequality and real estate lending across U.S. states. In addition, we find evidence indicating that the path of causality runs from inequality to credit.

Suggested Citation

  • Steven Yamarik & Makram El Shagi, 2016. "Does Inequality Lead to Credit Growth? Testing the Rajan Hypothesis Using State-Level Data," Working Papers 2016.01, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    • Handle: RePEc:inf:wpaper:2016.01
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://infer-research.eu/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/bdm6ya0r27fhz09y2cmcwdzmslhffrmz1513967485.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2016
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Xinhua Gu & Bihong Huang, 2014. "Does Inequality Lead to a Financial Crisis? Revisited," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(3), pages 502-516, August.
    2. Bassanini, Andrea & Scarpetta, Stefano, 2002. "Does human capital matter for growth in OECD countries? A pooled mean-group approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 399-405, February.
    3. Perugini, Cristiano & Hölscher, Jens & Collie, Simon, 2013. "Inequality, credit expansion and financial crises," MPRA Paper 51336, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Salvatore Morelli & Anthony Atkinson, 2015. "Inequality and crises revisited," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 32(1), pages 31-51, April.
    5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    6. Berkmen, S. Pelin & Gelos, Gaston & Rennhack, Robert & Walsh, James P., 2012. "The global financial crisis: Explaining cross-country differences in the output impact," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 42-59.
    7. Steve Bond & Asli Leblebicioglu & Fabio Schiantarelli, 2010. "Capital accumulation and growth: a new look at the empirical evidence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(7), pages 1073-1099, November/.
    8. El-Shagi, M. & Knedlik, T. & von Schweinitz, G., 2013. "Predicting financial crises: The (statistical) significance of the signals approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 76-103.
    9. Philip R Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2011. "The Cross-Country Incidence of the Global Crisis," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(1), pages 77-110, April.
    10. Cristiano Perugini & Jens Hölscher & Simon Collie, 2016. "Inequality, credit and financial crises," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 40(1), pages 227-257.
    11. Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2012. "Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Crises, 1870-2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1029-1061, April.
    12. Tuomas Malinen, 2013. "Is there a relationship between income inequality and credit cycles?," Working Papers 292, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
    13. Mathias Klein, 2015. "Inequality and household debt: a panel cointegration analysis," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(2), pages 391-412, May.
    14. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    15. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
    16. Hausman, Jerry, 2015. "Specification tests in econometrics," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 38(2), pages 112-134.
    17. Raghuram G. Rajan, 2010. "Fault Lines: How Hidden Fractures Still Threaten the World Economy," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9111.
    18. Stijn Claessens, 2010. "The Financial Crisis," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 4(2), pages 177-196, May.
    19. Bordo, Michael D. & Meissner, Christopher M., 2012. "Does inequality lead to a financial crisis?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2147-2161.
    20. Mark Frank & Mark Price & Emmanuel Saez & Estelle Sommeiller, 2015. "Frank-Sommeiller-Price Series for Top Income Shares by US States since 1917," Technical Notes 201507, World Inequality Lab.
    21. Edmond Berisha & John Meszaros & Eric Olson, 2015. "Income inequality and household debt: a cointegration test," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(18), pages 1469-1473, December.
    22. G. S. Maddala & Shaowen Wu, 1999. "A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 631-652, November.
    23. Judson, Ruth A. & Owen, Ann L., 1999. "Estimating dynamic panel data models: a guide for macroeconomists," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 9-15, October.
    24. Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. "A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-652, Special I.
    25. Stijn Claessens & Giovanni Dell’Ariccia & Deniz Igan & Luc Laeven, 2010. "Cross-country experiences and policy implications from the global financial crisis [From Great Depression to Great Credit Crisis: Similarities, differences and lessons]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 25(62), pages 267-293.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Meszaros, John, 2018. "Inequality and unionization within the United States," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 326-333.
    2. Fierro, Luca Eduardo & Giri, Federico & Russo, Alberto, 2023. "Inequality-constrained monetary policy in a financialized economy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 216(C), pages 366-385.
    3. Rym Ayadi & Sami B. Naceur & Sandra Challita, 2023. "Does income inequality really matter for credit booms?," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 52(1), February.
    4. Mehmet Akif Destek & Bilge Koksel, 2019. "Income inequality and financial crises: evidence from the bootstrap rolling window," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 5(1), pages 1-23, December.
    5. Balcilar, Mehmet & Berisha, Edmond & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2021. "Time-varying evidence of predictability of financial stress in the United States over a century: The role of inequality," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 87-92.
    6. Suzuki, Shiba, 2018. "Inequality and asset fire sales," MPRA Paper 90906, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. El-Shagi, Makram & Fidrmuc, Jarko & Yamarik, Steven, 2020. "Inequality and credit growth in Russian regions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 550-558.
    8. van Netten, Jamie, 2023. "The relationship between inequality and bank credit in Australia," Warwick-Monash Economics Student Papers 54, Warwick Monash Economics Student Papers.
    9. Roman Matkovskyy, 2020. "A measurement of affluence and poverty interdependence across countries: Evidence from the application of tail copula," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(4), pages 404-416, October.
    10. Bodea, Cristina & Houle, Christian & Kim, Hyunwoo, 2021. "Do financial crises increase income inequality?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    11. Yassin Elshain Yahia & Haiyun Liu & Abdalla Sirag & Sayyed Sadaqat Hussain Shah, 2020. "The Impacts of Intra-Trade on Industrialization: Evidence from COMESA," Asian Development Policy Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 8(2), pages 75-101, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. El-Shagi, Makram & Fidrmuc, Jarko & Yamarik, Steven, 2020. "Inequality and credit growth in Russian regions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 550-558.
    2. Pascal Paul, 2018. "Historical Patterns of Inequality and Productivity around Financial Crises," 2018 Meeting Papers 583, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Maurice Obstfeld, 2012. "Stories of the Twentieth Century for the Twenty-First," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 226-265, January.
    4. Jan Behringer & Sabine Stephan & Thomas Theobald, 2017. "Macroeconomic factors behind financial instability," IMK Working Paper 178-2017, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    5. Tuomas Malinen, 2016. "Does income inequality contribute to credit cycles?," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 14(3), pages 309-325, September.
    6. Pascal Paul, 2023. "Historical Patterns of Inequality and Productivity around Financial Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(7), pages 1641-1665, October.
    7. Bruce N. Lehmann & David M. Modest, 1985. "The Empirical Foundations of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory I: The Empirical Tests," NBER Working Papers 1725, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Rémi Bazillier & Jérôme Hericourt, 2017. "The Circular Relationship Between Inequality, Leverage, And Financial Crises," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(2), pages 463-496, April.
    9. Stockhammer, Engelbert & Wildauer, Rafael, 2018. "Expenditure Cascades, Low Interest Rates or Property Booms? Determinants of Household Debt in OECD Countries," Review of Behavioral Economics, now publishers, vol. 5(2), pages 85-121, September.
    10. Loayza,Norman V. & Ouazad,Amine & Ranciere,Romain, 2017. "Financial development, growth, and crisis: is there a trade-off ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8237, The World Bank.
    11. Christian Mulder & Roberto Perrelli & Manuel Duarte Rocha, 2016. "The Role of Bank and Corporate Balance Sheets on Early Warning Systems of Currency Crises—An Empirical Study," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(7), pages 1542-1561, July.
    12. Melecky,Martin & Podpiera,Anca Maria, 2015. "Placing Bank supervision in the Central Bank : implications for financial stability based on evidence from the global crisis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7320, The World Bank.
    13. Bellettini, Giorgio & Delbono, Flavio & Karlström, Peter & Pastorello, Sergio, 2019. "Income inequality and banking crises: Testing the level hypothesis directly," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    14. Frankel, Jeffrey & Saravelos, George, 2012. "Can leading indicators assess country vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008–09 global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 216-231.
    15. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2013. "Financial Crises: Explanations, Types and Implications," CAMA Working Papers 2013-06, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    16. Mikkel Hermansen & Oliver Röhn, 2017. "Economic resilience: The usefulness of early warning indicators in OECD countries," OECD Journal: Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2016(1), pages 9-35.
    17. Rémi Bazillier & Jérôme Héricourt & Samuel Ligonnière, 2017. "Structure of Income Inequality and Household Leverage: Theory and Cross-Country Evidence," Working Papers 2017-01, CEPII research center.
    18. Wilms, Philip & Swank, Job & de Haan, Jakob, 2018. "Determinants of the real impact of banking crises: A review and new evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 54-70.
    19. Alan M. Taylor, 2012. "External Imbalances and Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 18606, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Catalán, Mario & Hoffmaister, Alexander W. & Harun, Cicilia Anggadewi, 2020. "Bank capital and lending: Evidence of nonlinearity from Indonesia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Rajan; inequality; loans; credit; PMG;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H71 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inf:wpaper:2016.01. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Pedro Cerqueira (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inferea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.