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What Goes Up Must Come Down? House Price Dynamics in the United States

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  • Mr. Vladimir Klyuev

Abstract

This paper estimates the evolution of equilibrium real home prices in the United States and finds that despite recent declines, single-family homes remained 8 to 20 percent overvalued as of the first quarter of 2008. In the short run, the gap between actual and equilibrium prices does not exert powerful influence over price dynamics. Instead, that dynamics is driven by the inventory-to-sales ratio and by foreclosure starts in a highly inertial relationship. Taken together, this implies that price declines are likely to continue, including past the point where overvaluation is eliminated. The paper also finds that from the early 1990s onwards changes in regional home prices have been more synchronized than before, and that the recent movements in the average price index have reflected a nationwide housing boom, followed by a nationwide housing bust.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Vladimir Klyuev, 2008. "What Goes Up Must Come Down? House Price Dynamics in the United States," IMF Working Papers 2008/187, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2008/187
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    Cited by:

    1. Dieter Gerdesmeier & Andreja Lenarčič & Barbara Roffia, 2015. "An alternative method for identifying booms and busts in the Euro area housing market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(5), pages 499-518, January.
    2. Conefrey, Thomas & Whelan, Karl, 2012. "Supply, Demand and Prices in the US Housing Market," Research Technical Papers 08/RT/12, Central Bank of Ireland.
    3. Nélson Leitão Paes & Cássio Da Nóbrega Besarria & Marcelo Eduardo Alves Da Silva, 2018. "Bubbles In The Prices Of Housing? Evidence To Brazil?S Economy," Anais do XLIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 44th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 118, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    4. P. Arestis & A.R. Gonz�lez, 2014. "Modelling the housing market in OECD countries," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(2), pages 131-153, March.
    5. Vansteenkiste, Isabel & Hiebert, Paul, 2011. "Do house price developments spillover across euro area countries? Evidence from a global VAR," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 299-314.
    6. M. Rozina & М. Розина, 2019. "Теория и практика поведенческой экономики в процессе принятия финансовых решений // The Use of Theory and Methods of Behavioural Economics in the Process of Making Financial Decisions," Review of Business and Economics Studies // Review of Business and Economics Studies, Финансовый Университет // Financial University, vol. 7(3), pages 45-82.
    7. Chan Lily & Ng Heng Tiong & Rishi Ramchand, 2012. "A cluster analysis approach to examining Singapore’s property market," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Property markets and financial stability, volume 64, pages 43-53, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Leung, Charles Ka Yui, 2014. "Error correction dynamics of house prices: An equilibrium benchmark," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 75-95.
    9. KARGI, Bilal, 2013. "Konut Piyasası ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Türkiye Üzerine Zaman Serileri Analizi (2000-2012) [Housing market and economic growth relation: time series analysis over Turkey (2000-2012)]," MPRA Paper 55694, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Smith, Scott & Fuller, Debra & Bogin, Alex & Polkovnichenko, Nataliya & Weiher, Jesse, 2016. "Countercyclical capital regime revisited: Tests of robustness," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 50-78.
    11. Diego Vílchez, 2015. "Assessing the House Price Dynamics in Lima," IHEID Working Papers 09-2015, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    12. Alessio Ciarlone, 2015. "House price cycles in emerging economies," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 32(1), pages 17-52, March.
    13. Kristine Gevorgyan, 2015. "Analysis of Price Bubbles on the Czech Real Estate Market [Analýza cenových bublin na českém trhu s nemovitostmi]," Acta Oeconomica Pragensia, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2015(5), pages 45-63.
    14. V. Baugnet & P. Butzen & S. Cheliout & W. Melyn & Q. Wibaut, 2011. "End of the crisis in the housing markets ? An international survey," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue i, pages 53-71, June.
    15. Ms. Evridiki Tsounta, 2009. "Is the Canadian Housing Market Overvalued? A Post-crisis Assessment," IMF Working Papers 2009/235, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Francesco Tajani & Pierluigi Morano & Maria Paz Saez-Perez & Felicia Di Liddo & Marco Locurcio, 2019. "Multivariate Dynamic Analysis and Forecasting Models of Future Property Bubbles: Empirical Applications to the Housing Markets of Spanish Metropolitan Cities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(13), pages 1-21, June.
    17. Scott Smith & Jesse Weiher, 2012. "Countercyclical Capital Regime – A Proposed Design and Empirical Evaluation," FHFA Staff Working Papers 12-02, Federal Housing Finance Agency.
    18. Mr. Luis M. Cubeddu & Mr. Camilo E Tovar Mora & Ms. Evridiki Tsounta, 2012. "Latin America: Vulnerabilities Under Construction?," IMF Working Papers 2012/193, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Pan, Huiran & Wang, Chun, 2013. "House prices, bank instability, and economic growth: Evidence from the threshold model," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1720-1732.
    20. Ms. Deniz O Igan & Mr. Prakash Loungani, 2012. "Global Housing Cycles," IMF Working Papers 2012/217, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Vílchez, Diego, 2015. "Evaluando las Dinámicas de Precios en el Sector Inmobiliario: Evidencia para Perú," Working Papers 2015-013, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    22. Czerniak, Adam & Borowski, Jakub & Boratyński, Jakub & Rosati, Dariusz, 2020. "Asset price bubbles in a monetary union: Mind the convergence gap," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 288-302.
    23. Seoung Hwan Suh & Kabsung Kim, 2014. "Global financial crisis and early warning system of Korean housing market," Chapters, in: Susan Wachter & Man Cho & Moon Joong Tcha (ed.), The Global Financial Crisis and Housing, chapter 4, pages 62-81, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    24. Ch. Warisse, 2017. "Analysis of the developments in residential property prices : Is the Belgian market overvalued ?," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue i, pages 61-77, June.

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