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A Bayesian Approach to Model Uncertainty

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  • Mr. Charalambos G Tsangarides

Abstract

This paper develops the theoretical background for the Limited Information Bayesian Model Averaging (LIBMA). The proposed approach accounts for model uncertainty by averaging over all possible combinations of predictors when making inferences about the variables of interest, and it simultaneously addresses the biases associated with endogenous and omitted variables by incorporating a panel data systems Generalized Method of Moments estimator. Practical applications of the developed methodology are discussed, including testing for the robustness of explanatory variables in the analyses of the determinants of economic growth and poverty.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Charalambos G Tsangarides, 2004. "A Bayesian Approach to Model Uncertainty," IMF Working Papers 2004/068, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2004/068
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    2. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "Hypothesis Testing with Efficient Method of Moments Estimation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 28(3), pages 777-787, October.
    3. Golan, Amos & Judge, George G. & Miller, Douglas, 1996. "Maximum Entropy Econometrics," Staff General Research Papers Archive 1488, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    4. Kim, Jae-Young, 2002. "Limited information likelihood and Bayesian analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 107(1-2), pages 175-193, March.
    5. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    6. Mr. Carlos A Leite & Mr. Charalambos G Tsangarides & Mr. Dhaneshwar Ghura, 2002. "Is Growth Enough? Macroeconomic Policy and Poverty Reduction," IMF Working Papers 2002/118, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Jae-Young Kim, 2000. "The Generalized Method of Moments in the Bayesian Framework and a Model of Moment Selection Criterion," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1779, Econometric Society.
    8. Andrews, Donald W K & Monahan, J Christopher, 1992. "An Improved Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(4), pages 953-966, July.
    9. Xavier Sala-I-Martin & Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller, 2004. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 813-835, September.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Enrique Moral-Benito, 2012. "Determinants of Economic Growth: A Bayesian Panel Data Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(2), pages 566-579, May.
    2. Steven N. Durlauf & Andros Kourtellos & Chih Ming Tan, 2008. "Are Any Growth Theories Robust?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(527), pages 329-346, March.
    3. Theo S. Eicher & Monique Newiak, 2013. "Intellectual property rights as development determinants," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 46(1), pages 4-22, February.
    4. Mark F. J. Steel, 2020. "Model Averaging and Its Use in Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 58(3), pages 644-719, September.
    5. Huigang Chen & Mr. Alin T Mirestean & Mr. Charalambos G Tsangarides, 2011. "Limited Information Bayesian Model Averaging for Dynamic Panels with An Application to a Trade Gravity Model," IMF Working Papers 2011/230, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Ms. Sonali Jain-Chandra & Ms. Kalpana Kochhar & Ms. Monique Newiak & Yang Yang & Ms. Edda Zoli, 2018. "Gender Equality: Which Policies Have the Biggest Bang for the Buck?," IMF Working Papers 2018/105, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Mr. Alin T Mirestean & Mr. Charalambos G Tsangarides & Huigang Chen, 2009. "Limited Information Bayesian Model Averaging for Dynamic Panels with Short Time Periods," IMF Working Papers 2009/074, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Alex Lenkoski & Theo S. Eicher & Adrian E. Raftery, 2014. "Two-Stage Bayesian Model Averaging in Endogenous Variable Models," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1-4), pages 122-151, June.
    9. Theo S. Eicher & Alex Lenkoski & Adrian Raftery, 2009. "Bayesian Model Averaging and Endogeneity Under Model Uncertainty: An Application to Development Determinants," Working Papers UWEC-2009-19-FC, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    10. Eicher, Theo S. & Helfman, Lindy & Lenkoski, Alex, 2012. "Robust FDI determinants: Bayesian Model Averaging in the presence of selection bias," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 637-651.
    11. Aiyar, Shekhar & Duval, Romain & Puy, Damien & Wu, Yiqun & Zhang, Longmei, 2018. "Growth slowdowns and the middle-income trap," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 22-37.
    12. Coulibaly, Issiaka & Gnimassoun, Blaise, 2013. "Optimality of a monetary union: New evidence from exchange rate misalignments in West Africa," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 463-482.
    13. Mr. Charalambos G Tsangarides, 2012. "Determinants of Growth Spells: Is Africa Different?," IMF Working Papers 2012/227, International Monetary Fund.

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