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Optimal Debt Management with a Stability and Growth Pact

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  • Alessandro Missale

Abstract

The "Stability and Growth Pact" introduces deficit stabilization as a new interesting objective of debt management. The interest payments on public debt may serve as an important buffer against the budget consequences of cyclical downturns and unexpected deflation. The optimal debt composition depends on the correlations between interest rates, output and inflation. Estimated correlations for the period 1960-1998 and the implied debt compositions provide benchmarks for implications regarding the EMU. The paper explores how relevant correlations between output, inflation and interest rates may have changed with the shift in the monetary policy regime and thus how the debt composition, which stabilizes the deficit, has changed. A longer maturity structure of conventional debt is optimal if the ECB places a lower weight on output stabilization than the national monetary authorities and if EMU member states are hit by asymmetric shocks. Short term conventional debt should instead be issued by countries which experience a relatively higher output and inflation uncertainty and a lower sensitivity of aggregate demand to interest-rate changes. The optimal share of inflation-indexed debt is largest in a strict inflation targeting regime; the lower the weight that the ECB assigns to output stabilization, the more attractive is inflation indexation for deficit stabilization.

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  • Alessandro Missale, "undated". "Optimal Debt Management with a Stability and Growth Pact," Working Papers 166, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  • Handle: RePEc:igi:igierp:166
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    Cited by:

    1. Alessandro Missale & Francesco Giavazzi, 2003. "Public Debt Management in Brazil," Development Working Papers 178, Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano, University of Milano.
    2. Michael J. Artis & Marco Buti, 2000. "‘Close‐to‐Balance or in Surplus’: A Policy‐Maker's Guide to the Implementation of the Stability and Growth Pact," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(4), pages 563-591, November.
    3. Giorgio Basevi & Lorenzo Pecchi & Gustavo Piga, 2005. "Parallel Monies, Parallel Debt: Lessons from the EMU and Options for the New EU," CEIS Research Paper 68, Tor Vergata University, CEIS.
    4. Marialena Athanasopoulou & Andrea Consiglio & Aitor Erce & Angel Gavilan & Edmund Moshammer & Stavros A. Zenios, 2019. "Risk Management for Sovereign Debt Financing with Sustainability Conditions," Globalization Institute Working Papers 367, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    5. Zorica Raspudic Golomejic, 2007. "Coordination of Public Debt Management and Running Monetary Policy in Croatia," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 31(2), pages 153-183.
    6. Mr. Udaibir S Das & Miss Yinqiu Lu & Mr. Michael G. Papaioannou & Iva Petrova, 2012. "Sovereign Risk and Asset and Liability Management: Conceptual Issues," IMF Working Papers 2012/241, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Sieg Gernot & Stegemann Ulrike, 2010. "Strategic Debt Management within the Stability and Growth Pact," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 61(3), pages 225-240, December.
    8. Robert Joliet & Rabia Nessah, 2016. "Euro White and Euro Yolk: Sovereign Debt Structure Stability in the Eurozone," International Game Theory Review (IGTR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 18(03), pages 1-15, September.
    9. Michele Manna & Emmanuela Bernardini & Mauro Bufano & Davide Dottori, 2013. "Modelling public debt strategies," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 199, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    10. Sebastian Beer, 2018. "A cost-risk analysis of sovereign debt composition in CESEE," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q1-18, pages 6-25.

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