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Testing Wagner's Law at Different Stages of Economic Development - A Historical Analysis of Five Western European Countries

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Abstract

Using historical data, we test the validity of Wagner's law of increasing state activity at different stages of economic development for five industrialized European countries: the United Kingdom, Denmark, Sweden, Finland and Italy. In order to investigate the coherence between Wagner's law and development stage, we classify every country into three individual stages of income development and apply advanced cointegration and vector error correction analyses. In line with Wagner's hypothesis, our findings show that the relationship between public spending and economic growth has weakened with an advanced stage of development. All countries support the notion that Wagner's law in its pure form may have reached its limit in recent decades.

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  • Jan Kuckuck, 2012. "Testing Wagner's Law at Different Stages of Economic Development - A Historical Analysis of Five Western European Countries," IEER Working Papers 91, Institute of Empirical Economic Research, Osnabrueck University.
    • Handle: RePEc:iee:wpaper:wp0091
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Tesařová Žaneta, 2020. "The Wagner’s law testing in the Visegrád Four countries," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 20(4), pages 409-430, December.
    2. Stephen Moore, 2016. "Wagner in Ireland: An Econometric Analysis," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 47(1), pages 69-103.
    3. Marco Gallegati & Massimo Tamberi, 2022. "Long swings in the growth of government expenditure: an international historical perspective," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 192(3), pages 227-248, September.
    4. Udo Aniefiok Benedict & Effiong Charles Efefiom & Ogar Ohiama Ochagu, 2016. "Economic Growth of West African Countries and the Validity of Wagner’s Law: A Panel Analysis," Asian Journal of Economics and Empirical Research, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 3(1), pages 71-83.
    5. Saten Kumar & Zhaoyi Cao, 2020. "Testing for structural changes in the Wagner’s Law for a sample of East Asian countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(4), pages 1959-1976, October.
    6. Mustapha JOBARTEH, 2020. "Testing Wagner’s Law for sub-Saharan Africa: A panel cointegration and causality approach," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(1(622), S), pages 125-136, Spring.
    7. Emilian Dobrescu, 2018. "Functional trinity of public finance in an emerging economy," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 7(1), pages 1-27, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Wagner's law; government expenditure; economic development; cointegration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H5 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies
    • N43 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • N44 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - Europe: 1913-

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