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Do Credit Rating Agencies Add Value? Evidence from the Sovereign Rating Business Institutions

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Author Info
Eduardo Cavallo ()
Andrew Powell ()
Roberto Rigobon

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Abstract

If rating agencies add no new information to markets, their actions are not a public policy concern. But as rating changes may be anticipated, testing whether ratings add value is not straightforward. This paper argues that ratings and spreads are both noisy signals of fundamentals and suggest ratings add value if, controlling for spreads, they help explain other variables. The paper additionally analyzes the different actions (ratings and outlooks) of the three leading agencies for sovereign debt, also considering the differing effects of more or less anticipated events. The results are consistent across a wide range of tests. Ratings do matter and hence how the market for ratings functions may be a public policy concern.

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Paper provided by Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department in its series RES Working Papers with number 4601.

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Date of creation: Nov 2008
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Handle: RePEc:idb:wpaper:4601

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation
G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies
G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data

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  1. Martín González-Rozada & EduardoLevy Yeyati, 2008. "Global Factors and Emerging Market Spreads," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(533), pages 1917-1936, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1996. "Determinants and impact of sovereign credit ratings," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Oct, pages 37-53. [Downloadable!]
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  3. António Afonso & Pedro Gomes & Philipp Rother, 2007. "What “hides” behind sovereign debt ratings?," Working Paper Series 711, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Hausman, Jerry A, 1978. "Specification Tests in Econometrics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1251-71, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Andrew W. Lo, A. Craig MacKinlay, 1988. "Stock Market Prices do not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 41-66. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Barry Eichengreen & Ashoka Mody, 2000. "What Explains Changing Spreads on Emerging Market Debt?," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies: Theory, Evidence, and Controversies, pages 107-136 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  7. Dell'Ariccia, Giovanni & Schnabel, Isabel & Zettelmeyer, Jeromin, 2006. "How Do Official Bailouts Affect the Risk of Investing in Emerging Markets?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(7), pages 1689-1714, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-4.


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