If rating agencies add no new information to markets, their actions are not a public policy concern. But as rating changes may be anticipated, testing whether ratings add value is not straightforward. This paper argues that ratings and spreads are both noisy signals of fundamentals and suggest ratings add value if, controlling for spreads, they help explain other variables. The paper additionally analyzes the different actions (ratings and outlooks) of the three leading agencies for sovereign debt, also considering the differing effects of more or less anticipated events. The results are consistent across a wide range of tests. Ratings do matter and hence how the market for ratings functions may be a public policy concern.
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Paper provided by Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department in its series RES Working Papers with number
4601.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Luis Daniel Martinez).
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Find related papers by JEL classification: F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data
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António Afonso & Pedro Gomes & Philipp Rother, 2006.
"What “Hides” Behind Sovereign Debt Ratings?,"
Working Papers
2006/35, Department of Economics at the School of Economics and Management (ISEG), Technical University of Lisbon..
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