IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iab/iabdpa/201702.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Cohort size and transitions into the labour market

Author

Listed:
  • Roth, Duncan

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)

Abstract

"This paper estimates the effect that the size of an individual's labour-market entry cohort has on the subsequent duration of search for employment. Survival-analysis methods are applied to empirically assess this relationship using a sample of apprenticeship graduates who entered the German labour market between 1999 and 2012. The results suggest that apprentices from larger graduation cohorts take less time to find employment, but this effect appears to be significant only for a period of up to six months after graduation. These results therefore do not support the cohort-crowding hypothesis that members of larger cohorts face depressed labour-market outcomes. Moreover, there is no evidence that shorter search durations are the result of graduates being pushed into lower-quality employment. The finding that graduating as part of a larger cohort leads to shorter search durations is in line with those parts of the cohort-size literature that find larger youth cohorts being associated with lower unemployment rates. A possible explanation is that firms react to an anticipated increase in the number of graduates by creating jobs." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Suggested Citation

  • Roth, Duncan, 2017. "Cohort size and transitions into the labour market," IAB-Discussion Paper 201702, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    • Handle: RePEc:iab:iabdpa:201702
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doku.iab.de/discussionpapers/2017/dp0217.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Boll, Christina & Leppin, Julian & Rossen, Anja & Wolf, André, 2016. "Overeducation - New evidence for 25 European countries," IAB-Discussion Paper 201635, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    2. Mario Cleves & William W. Gould & Roberto G. Gutierrez & Yulia Marchenko, 2010. "An Introduction to Survival Analysis Using Stata," Stata Press books, StataCorp LP, edition 3, number saus3, March.
    3. Garloff, Alfred, 2016. "Side effects of the new German minimum wage on (un-)employment : first evidence from regional data," IAB-Discussion Paper 201631, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alena Bičáková & Guido Matias Cortes & Jacopo Mazza, 2021. "Caught in the Cycle: Economic Conditions at Enrolment and Labour Market Outcomes of College Graduates," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(638), pages 2383-2412.
    2. Ademola Obafemi Young, 2021. "Cohort Size and Unemployment Rate: New Insights from Nigeria," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 13(1), pages 122-151, January.
    3. Konle-Seidl, Regina, 2017. "Retention and re-integration of older workers into the labour market: What works?," IAB-Discussion Paper 201717, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    4. Dauth, Christine & Lang, Julia, 2017. "Should the unemployed care for the elderly? : The effect of subsidized occupational and further training in elderly care," IAB-Discussion Paper 201713, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    5. Kruppe, Thomas & Trepesch, Merlind, 2017. "Weiterbildungsbeteiligung in Deutschland : Auswertungen mit den Daten der Erwachsenenbefragung des Nationalen Bildungspanels "Bildung im Erwachsenenalter und lebenslanges Lernen"," IAB-Discussion Paper 201716, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    6. Promberger, Markus, 2017. "Resilience among vulnerable households in Europe : Questions, concept, findings and implications," IAB-Discussion Paper 201712, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. John Moffat & Duncan Roth, 2014. "Cohort size and youth labour-market outcomes: the role of measurement error," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201440, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    2. Grass, Karen & Weber, Enzo, 2016. "EU 4.0 - The debate on digitalisation and the labour market in Europe," IAB Discussion Paper 201639_en, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    3. Baumgartner, Josef & Glatzer, Ernst & Rumler, Fabio & Stiglbauer, Alfred, 2005. "How frequently do consumer prices change in Austria? Evidence from micro CPI data," Working Paper Series 523, European Central Bank.
    4. Elsa Sarmento & Alcina Nunes, 2010. "Comparative Survival Analysis of Firms: the case of the Portuguese North region," Working Papers de Economia (Economics Working Papers) 53, Departamento de Economia, Gestão e Engenharia Industrial, Universidade de Aveiro.
    5. Amy Y. Li, 2017. "Covet Thy Neighbor or “Reverse Policy Diffusion”? State Adoption of Performance Funding 2.0," Research in Higher Education, Springer;Association for Institutional Research, vol. 58(7), pages 746-771, November.
    6. Silvia Vannutelli & Sergio Scicchitano & Marco Biagetti, 2022. "Routine-biased technological change and wage inequality: do workers’ perceptions matter?," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 12(3), pages 409-450, September.
    7. Carlos Pestana Barros & Zhongfei Chen & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2012. "Housing sales in urban Beijing," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(34), pages 4495-4504, December.
    8. Joseph J. Capuno, 2013. "Fiscal transfers and gerrymandering under decentralization in the Philippines," UP School of Economics Discussion Papers 201304, University of the Philippines School of Economics.
    9. Bonin Holger & Isphording Ingo E. & Krause-Pilatus Annabelle & Pestel Nico & Rinne Ulf & Lichter Andreas, 2020. "The German Statutory Minimum Wage and Its Effects on Regional Employment and Unemployment," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 240(2-3), pages 295-319, April.
    10. Schipmann, Christin & Qaim, Matin, 2009. "Modern Supply Chains and Product Innovation: How Can Smallholder Farmers Benefit?," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 51046, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    11. Boockmann, Bernhard & Steffes, Susanne, 2005. "Individual and Plant-level Determinants of Job Durations in Germany," ZEW Discussion Papers 05-89, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    12. Nebibe Varol & Joan Costa-i-Font & Alistair McGuire, 2011. "Explaining Early Adoption on New Medicines: Regulation, Innovation and Scale," CESifo Working Paper Series 3459, CESifo.
    13. Jean-Marie Baland & Rohini Somanathan & Lore Vandewalle, 2019. "Socially Disadvantaged Groups and Microfinance in India," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(3), pages 537-569.
    14. Cefis, Elena & Bartoloni, Eleonora & Bonati, Marco, 2020. "Show me how to live: Firms' financial conditions and innovation during the crisis," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 63-81.
    15. Buenstorf, Guido & Costa, Carla, 2018. "Drivers of spin-off performance in industry clusters: Embodied knowledge or embedded firms?," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 663-673.
    16. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2017_018 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Imre Fertő & Karoly Attila Soos, 2009. "Duration of trade of former communist countries in the EU market," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 31-39.
    18. Hellwig, Michael & Hüschelrath, Kai, 2018. "When Do Firms Leave Cartels? Determinants And The Impact On Cartel Survival," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 68-84.
    19. Seals, Richard Alan & Stern, Liliana V., 2013. "Cognitive ability and the division of labor in urban ghettos: Evidence from gang activity in U.S. data," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 140-149.
    20. Cindy Biesenbeek & Mauro Mastrogiacomo & Rob Alessie & Jakob de Haan, 2022. "The effect of introducing a Loan-to-Value limit on home ownership," Working Papers 741, DNB.
    21. Rodney Ramcharan & Christopher Crowe, 2013. "The Impact of House Prices on Consumer Credit: Evidence from an Internet Bank," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(6), pages 1085-1115, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bundesrepublik Deutschland ; Ausbildungsabsolventen ; berufliche Integration ; Berufseinmündung ; Bevölkerungsstruktur ; Erwerbsquote ; Integrierte Erwerbsbiografien ; junge Erwachsene ; Kohortenanalyse ; 1999-2012;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iab:iabdpa:201702. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: IAB, Geschäftsbereich Wissenschaftliche Fachinformation und Bibliothek (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iabbbde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.