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Capital Charges under Basel II: Corporate Credit Risk Modelling and the Macro Economy

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Author Info
Carling, Kenneth (Högskolan Dalarna, Borlänge)
Jacobson, Tor () (Research Department, Central Bank of Sweden)
Lindé, Jesper () (Research Department, Central Bank of Sweden)
Roszbach, Kasper () (Research Department, Central Bank of Sweden)

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Abstract

The Internal Ratings Based (IRB) approach for capital determination is one of the cornerstones in the proposed revision of the Basel Committee rules for bank regulation. We evaluate the IRB approach using historical business loan portfolio data from a major Swedish bank for the period 1994 to 2000. First, we estimate a duration model that takes into account both company, loan related and macroeconomic variables. Next, we obtain a Value-at-Risktype (VaR) credit risk measure, by model-based simulations. Moreover, we study how both the bank’s credit risk and bu.er capital changes over time (had the bank been subject to the proposed rules). This approach allows us to (i) make individual forecasts of default risk conditional on company, loan and macro variables, (ii) study portfolio credit risk over time, (iii) assess to what extent the new Accord will achieve its main objective of increasing credit risk sensitivity in minimal capital charges, and (iv) compare current capital requirements to those under the proposed system. Our results show that macro conditions have great explanatory power in predicting default risk and calculating credit risk. The IRB approach, although sensitive to the choice of some horizon parameters, is an achievement in the intended direction.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden) in its series Working Paper Series with number 142.

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Length: 49 pages
Date of creation: 01 Sep 2002
Date of revision:
Publication status: Forthcoming in Journal of Banking and Finance.
Handle: RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0142

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Postal: Sveriges Riksbank, SE-103 37 Stockholm, Sweden
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Related research
Keywords: Internal Ratings Based approach; relative risk weights; Value-at-Risk; credit risk models;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis
G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Mortgages
G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    Other versions:
  2. Carey, Mark & Hrycay, Mark, 2001. "Parameterizing credit risk models with rating data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 197-270, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Englund, Peter, 1999. "The Swedish Banking Crisis: Roots and Consequences," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(3), pages 80-97, Autumn.
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  5. Michael B. Gordy, 1998. "A comparative anatomy of credit risk models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-47, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  6. Altman, Edward I. & Saunders, Anthony, 2001. "An analysis and critique of the BIS proposal on capital adequacy and ratings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 25-46, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Estrella, Arturo & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1991. " The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 555-76, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Estrella, Arturo, 2004. "The cyclical behavior of optimal bank capital," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1469-1498, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Altman, Edward I, 1971. "Railroad Bankruptcy Propensity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 26(2), pages 333-45, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Merton, Robert C., 1973. "On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates," Working papers 684-73., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Hamerle, Alfred & Liebig, Thilo & Rösch, Daniel, 2003. "Credit Risk Factor Modeling and the Basel II IRB Approach," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2003,02, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  14. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1999. "Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables as Leading Indicators," NBER Working Papers 5379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  15. Michael B. Gordy, 2002. "A risk-factor model foundation for ratings-based bank capital rules," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-55, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  16. Edward I. Altman, 1973. "Predicting Railroad Bankruptcies in America," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 4(1), pages 184-211, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Gordy, Michael B., 2000. "A comparative anatomy of credit risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 119-149, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Shumway, Tyler, 2001. "Forecasting Bankruptcy More Accurately: A Simple Hazard Model," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(1), pages 101-24, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Siem Jan Koopman & André Lucas & André Monteiro, 2005. "The Multi-State Latent Factor Intensity Model for Credit Rating Transitions," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-071/4, Tinbergen Institute, revised 04 Jul 2005. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Inês Drumond, 2008. "Bank Capital Requirements, Business Cycle Fluctuations and the Basel Accords: A Synthesis," FEP Working Papers 277, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto. [Downloadable!]
  3. Carling , Kenneth & Lundberg, Sofia, 2002. "Bank Lending, Geographical Distance, and Credit risk: An Empirical Assessment of the Church Tower Principle," Working Paper Series 144, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
  4. Jesper Tor Jacobson & Kasper Roszbach Lindé, 2004. "Credit Risk Versus Capital Requirements Under Basel II: Are SME Loans and Retail Credit Really Di Erent?," Departmental Working Papers 199, Tor Vergata University, CEIS. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Siem Jan Koopman & Roman Kraeussl & Andre Lucas & Andre Monteiro, 2006. "Credit Cycles and Macro Fundamentals," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 06-023/2, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Mark Illing & Graydon Paulin, 2004. "The New Basel Capital Accord and the Cyclical Behaviour of Bank Capital," Working Papers 04-30, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
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