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Bilateral Equilibrium Exchange Rates of the EU Accession Countries against the Euro

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Author Info
Jörg Rahn ()
Abstract

In this paper we apply two different concepts (BEER and PEER) to calculate real equilibrium exchange rates for fiveEast and Central European EU accession countries. From the results bilateral nominal equilibrium exchange rates againstthe euro are obtained through an algebraic transformation. Furthermore, panel cointegration techniques are used to checkthe adequacy of the empirical model. The results indicate a substantial overvaluation of the real exchange rate inseveral EU accession countries. The magnitude of overvaluation turns out to be even higher when the exchange rate isexpressed in nominal terms against the euro.

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Paper provided by Hamburg University, Department of Economics in its series Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers with number 20306.

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Date of creation: Jun 2003
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Handle: RePEc:ham:qmwops:20306

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Related research
Keywords: Real Exchange Rates; Equilibrium Exchange Rates; Transition Economies; Panel Cointegration;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data

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  1. Canzoneri, Matthew B & Cumby, Robert & Diba, Behzad, 1996. "Relative Labour Productivity and the Real Exchange Rate in the Long Run: Evidence for a Panel of OECD Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 1464, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Jesus Gonzalo & Clive W.J. Granger, 1991. "Estimation of Common Long-Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 91-33, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
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  3. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi, 1994. "Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations: How Important are Nominal Shocks?," CEPR Discussion Papers 951, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Pedroni, Peter, 1999. " Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 653-70, Special I. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Peter B. Clark & Ronald MacDonald, 1998. "Exchange Rates and Economic Fundamentals - A Methodological Comparison of BEERs and FEERs," IMF Working Papers 98/67, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Enrique Alberola & Susana G. Cervero & Humberto Lopez & Angel Ubide, 2000. "Global Equilibrium Exchange Rates: Euro, Dollar, "Ins," "Outs," and Other Major Currencies in a Panel Cointegration Framework," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0051, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Fischer, Christoph, 2002. "Real currency appreciation in accession countries: Balassa-Samuelson and investment demand," BOFIT Discussion Papers 8/2002, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Byung-Yeon Kim & Iikka Korhonen, 2002. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Countries: Evidence from Dynamic Heterogeneous Panel Models," Macroeconomics 0212014, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Katerina Smidkova, 2003. "Estimating the FEER for the Czech Economy," Macroeconomics 0303014, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  10. Hansen, Bruce E, 2002. "Tests for Parameter Instability in Regressions with I(1) Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 45-59, January.
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  11. Francisco Maeso-Fernandez & Chiara Osbat & Bernd Schnatz, 2001. "Determinants of the euro real effective exchange rate: a BEER/PEER approach," International Finance 0111003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Jose De Gregorio & Holger C. Wolf & Alberto Giovannini, 1994. "International Evidence on Tradables and Nontradables Inflation," IMF Working Papers 94/33, International Monetary Fund.
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  13. Kocenda, E., 1999. "Detecting Structural Breaks: Exchange Rates in Transition Economies," Papers 149, Commission of the EEC - Ecofin, Country Studies.
  14. Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 943, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Kornélia Krajnyák & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 1997. "Competitiveness in Transition Economies - What Scope for Real Appreciation?," IMF Working Papers 97/149, International Monetary Fund.
  16. Peter C.B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1988. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 869R, Cowles Foundation, Yale University, revised Apr 1989. [Downloadable!]
  17. Hamid Faruqee, 1994. "Long-Run Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate - A Stock-Flow Perspective," IMF Working Papers 94/90, International Monetary Fund.
  18. Hansen, J. & Roeger, W., 2000. "Estimation of Real Equilibrium Exchange Rates," European Economy - Economic Papers 144, Commission of the EC, Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN).
  19. Peter B. Clark & Ronald MacDonald, 2000. "Filtering the BEER - A Permanent and Transitory Decomposition," IMF Working Papers 00/144, International Monetary Fund.
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  20. Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995. "Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
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