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Climate and nomadic migration in a nonlinear world : evidence of the Historical China

Author

Listed:
  • Stéphane Goutte

    (Cemotev - Centre d'études sur la mondialisation, les conflits, les territoires et les vulnérabilités - UVSQ - Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines)

  • Olivier Damette

    (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - AgroParisTech - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) Mulhouse - Colmar - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CEC - Chaire Economie du Climat - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres, BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Qing Pei

    (EdUHK - The Education University of Hong Kong)

Abstract

This paper deals with climate change and nomadic migration relationships at a long term and wide geographical scale using a statistical approach in the vein of Bai and Kung (2011). More precisely, it presents a reassessment of these relationships in a nonlinear world using threshold regressions, time varying-copula and nonlinear causality tests. The large amount of historical records in China enables us to re-interpret the link between climate and historical social dynamics (Hsiang et al., 2013) through different regimes of temperatures and precipitations.

Suggested Citation

  • Stéphane Goutte & Olivier Damette & Qing Pei, 2020. "Climate and nomadic migration in a nonlinear world : evidence of the Historical China," Post-Print halshs-02726466, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-02726466
    DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3615328
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-02726466
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