Analysis of the dynamic interaction between real economic evolution and the Casablanca Stock Exchange[Analyse de l'interaction dynamique entre l'évolution économique réelle et la Bourse de Casablanca]

This study empirically analyzes the relationship between real economic evolution, stock market capitalization, and bank credit in Morocco. It is structured into two distinct parts: the first examines the impact of the real economy on the stock market, while the second explores the influence of the stock market on the real economy. Using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) approach, we estimated three models. Each model was estimated using OLS regression to analyze the relationships between these variables in the context of the Moroccan financial market and economy. The results highlight that private investment plays a predominant role as the primary determinant of market size—market capitalization—and economic growth. However, bank credit—i.e., credit to the private sector—and stock market capitalization show negative effects or statistically insignificant effects. These findings suggest that the stock market and the financial sector are not fully developed or integrated into the real economy in Morocco. This study thus makes a significant contribution to the literature on the interaction between the real economy and stock markets in emerging countries and offers important implications for guiding economic and financial policies in Morocco.