IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/gwi/wpaper/2014-04.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Rural Push, Urban Pull and... Urban Push? New Historical Evidence from Developing Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Remi Jedwab

    (Department of Economics/Institute for International Economic Policy, George Washington University)

  • Luc Christiaensen

    (Development Research Group, The World Bank)

  • Marina Gindelsky

    (Department of Economics, George Washington University)

Abstract

Standard models explain urbanization by rural-urban migration in response to an (expected) urban-rural wage gap. The Green Revolution and rural poverty constitute rural push factors of migration. The Industrial Revolution and the urban bias are urban pull factors. This paper offers an additional demographic mechanism, based on internal urban population growth, i.e. an urban push. Using newly compiled historical data on urban birth and death rates for 7 countries from Industrial Europe (1800-1910) and 33 developing countries (1960-2010), we show that many cities of today's developing world are "mushroom cities" vs. the "killer cities" of Industrial Europe; fertility is high, while mortaility is much lower. The high rates of urban natural increase have then accelerated urban growth and urbanization in developing countries, with urban populations now doubling every 18 years (15 years in Africa), compared to every 35 years in Industrial Europe. This is further found to be associated with higher urban congestion, possibly mitigating the benefits from agglomeration and providing further insights into the phenomenon of urbanizatino without growth. Both migration and urban demographics must be considered in debating urbanization.

Suggested Citation

  • Remi Jedwab & Luc Christiaensen & Marina Gindelsky, 2014. "Rural Push, Urban Pull and... Urban Push? New Historical Evidence from Developing Countries," Working Papers 2014-04, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
  • Handle: RePEc:gwi:wpaper:2014-04
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.gwu.edu/~iiep/assets/docs/papers/Jedwab_IIEPWP_2014-4.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Douglas Gollin & Remi Jedwab & Dietrich Vollrath, 2016. "Urbanization with and without industrialization," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 35-70, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cattaneo, Cristina & Peri, Giovanni, 2016. "The migration response to increasing temperatures," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 127-146.
    2. Beniamin Viorel BRANZAS, 2015. "Public Services Impact on Urban Migration Phenomenon in Romania," REVISTA DE MANAGEMENT COMPARAT INTERNATIONAL/REVIEW OF INTERNATIONAL COMPARATIVE MANAGEMENT, Faculty of Management, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 16(3), pages 417-430, July.
    3. Deborah Potts, 2018. "Urban data and definitions in sub-Saharan Africa: Mismatches between the pace of urbanisation and employment and livelihood change," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 55(5), pages 965-986, April.
    4. Alix-Garcia, Jennifer & Sellars, Emily A., 2020. "Locational fundamentals, trade, and the changing urban landscape of Mexico," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    5. Paul L. G. Vlek & Asia Khamzina & Hossein Azadi & Anik Bhaduri & Luna Bharati & Ademola Braimoh & Christopher Martius & Terry Sunderland & Fatemeh Taheri, 2017. "Trade-Offs in Multi-Purpose Land Use under Land Degradation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-19, November.
    6. Philippe Bocquier & Sandra Bree, 2018. "A regional perspective on the economic determinants of urban transition in 19th-century France," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 38(50), pages 1535-1576.
    7. Castells-Quintana, David, 2017. "Malthus living in a slum: Urban concentration, infrastructure and economic growth," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 158-173.
    8. Ewout Frankema & Jeffrey Williamson & Pieter Woltjer, 2015. "An Economic Rationale for the African Scramble: The Commercial Transition and the Commodity Price Boom of 1845-1885," NBER Working Papers 21213, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Imai, K.S. & Gaiha, R. & Garbero, A., 2018. "IFAD RESEARCH SERIES 22 - Poverty reduction during the rural-urban transformation: rural development is still more important than urbanization," IFAD Research Series 280071, International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD).
    10. Sellars, Emily & Alix-Garcia, Jennifer, 2018. "Locational fundamentals, trade, and the changing urban landscape of Mexico," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274238, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    11. Imai, Katsushi S. & Gaiha, Raghav & Garbero, Alessandra, 2017. "Poverty reduction during the rural–urban transformation: Rural development is still more important than urbanisation," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 963-982.
    12. Marco Baudino, 2019. "Urbanization and Development: A Spatial Framework of Rural-to-urban Migration," GREDEG Working Papers 2019-12, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France.
    13. Philippe Bocquier & Rafael Costa, 2015. "Which transition comes first? Urban and demographic transitions in Belgium and Sweden," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 33(48), pages 1297-1332.
    14. Douglas Gollin & Remi Jedwab & Dietrich Vollrath, 2016. "Urbanization with and without industrialization," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 35-70, March.
    15. Mathias Lerch, 2017. "Urban and rural fertility transitions in the developing world: a cohort perspective," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2017-011, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    16. Sean Fox & Robin Bloch & Jose Monroy, 2018. "Understanding the dynamics of Nigeria’s urban transition: A refutation of the ‘stalled urbanisation’ hypothesis," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 55(5), pages 947-964, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Temple, Jonathan & Ying, Huikang, 2014. "Life During Structural Transformation," CEPR Discussion Papers 10297, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Diao, Xinshen & Magalhaes, Eduardo & Silver, Jed, 2019. "Cities and rural transformation: A spatial analysis of rural livelihoods in Ghana," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 141-157.
    3. Jedwab, Remi & Vollrath, Dietrich, 2015. "Urbanization without growth in historical perspective," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 1-21.
    4. Jedwab, Remi & Christiaensen, Luc & Gindelsky, Marina, 2017. "Demography, urbanization and development: Rural push, urban pull and…urban push?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 6-16.
    5. Desmet, Klaus & Henderson, J. Vernon, 2015. "The Geography of Development Within Countries," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 1457-1517, Elsevier.
    6. Nin-Pratt, Alejandro & McBride, Linden, 2014. "Agricultural intensification in Ghana: Evaluating the optimist’s case for a Green Revolution," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 153-167.
    7. Diao, Xinshen & Silver, Jed & Takeshima, Hiroyuki, 2016. "Agricultural mechanization and agricultural transformation:," IFPRI discussion papers 1527, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    8. Bryane Michael, 2018. "What does Brunei teach us about using Human Development Index rankings as a policy tool?," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 36(S1), pages 414-431, March.
    9. Lopez-Uribe, Maria del Pilar & Castells-Quintana, David & McDermott, Thomas K. J., 2017. "Geography, institutions and development: a review ofthe long-run impacts of climate change," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 65147, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Jayne, T.S. & Chamberlin, Jordan & Headey, Derek D., 2014. "Land pressures, the evolution of farming systems, and development strategies in Africa: A synthesis," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 1-17.
    11. Jedwab,Remi Camille & Christiaensen,Luc & Gindelsky,Marina, 2015. "Demography, urbanization and development : rural push, urban pull and... urban push ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7333, The World Bank.
    12. Adam Storeygard, 2016. "Farther on down the Road: Transport Costs, Trade and Urban Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 83(3), pages 1263-1295.
    13. Castells-Quintana, David, 2017. "Malthus living in a slum: Urban concentration, infrastructure and economic growth," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 158-173.
    14. Liu, Yaobin, 2014. "Is the natural resource production a blessing or curse for China's urbanization? Evidence from a space–time panel data model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 404-416.
    15. Carolyn Chisadza & Manoel Bittencourt, 2014. "Is Democracy Eluding Sub-Saharan Africa?," Working Papers 201403, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    16. Remi Jedwab & Alexander Moradi, 2016. "The Permanent Effects of Transportation Revolutions in Poor Countries: Evidence from Africa," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(2), pages 268-284, May.
    17. Grundmann, Rainer & Gries, Thomas, 2015. "Crucial for Modern Sector Development? The Role of Exports and Institutions in Developing Countries," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112962, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    18. Rafael Portillo & Luis-Felipe Zanna & Stephen O’Connell & Richard Peck, 2016. "Implications of food subsistence for monetary policy and inflation," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 68(3), pages 782-810.
    19. Richard Grabowski, 2017. "Limited access states and elections: an unexpected economic consequence," Evolutionary and Institutional Economics Review, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 61-78, June.
    20. Emanuele Strano & Vishal Sood, 2016. "Rich and Poor Cities in Europe. An Urban Scaling Approach to Mapping the European Economic Transition," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(8), pages 1-8, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Urbanization; DemographicTransition; Migration; Poverty; Slums;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gwi:wpaper:2014-04. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kyle Renner (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iigwuus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.