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The Long Run Relationship Between Stock Prices And Goods Prices: New Evidence From Panel Cointegration

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Author Info
Andros Gregoriou
Alexandros Kontonikas

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Abstract

We examine the long run relationship between stock prices and goods prices to gauge whether stock market investment can hedge against inflation. Data from sixteen OECD countries over the period 1970-2006 are used. We account for different inflation regimes with the use of sub-sample regressions, whilst maintaining the power of tests in small sample sizes by combining time-series data across our sample countries in a panel unit root and panel cointegration econometric framework. The evidence supports a positive long-run relationship between goods prices and stock prices with the estimated goods price coefficient being in line with the generalized Fisher hypothesis.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Glasgow in its series Working Papers with number 2008_19.

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Handle: RePEc:gla:glaewp:2008_19

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C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing

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  4. Pierse, R. G. & Snell, A. J., 1995. "Temporal aggregation and the power of tests for a unit root," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 333-345, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Ely, David P. & Robinson, Kenneth J., 1997. "Are stocks a hedge against inflation? International evidence using a long-run approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 141-167, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Culver, Sarah E & Papell, David H, 1997. "Is There a Unit Root in the Inflation Rate? Evidence from Sequential Break and Panel Data Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(4), pages 435-44, July-Aug.. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. C. Goodhart, 2001. "What Weight Should be Given to Asset Prices in the Measurementof Inflation?," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 65, Netherlands Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  15. Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. " A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-52, Special I. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. J. Breitung, . "The Local Power of Some Unit Root Tests for Panel Data," Sonderforschungsbereich 373 1999-69, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
  17. Harris, Richard D. F. & Tzavalis, Elias, 1999. "Inference for unit roots in dynamic panels where the time dimension is fixed," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 201-226, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Goodhart, Charles, 2001. "What Weight Should Be Given to Asset Prices in the Measurement of Inflation?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(472), pages F335-56, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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