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Forecasting Using First Available Versus Fully Revised Economic Time Series data

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Author Info
Swanson, N.R.

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Abstract

First reported monthly and quarterly time series data on nine macroeconomic variables from 1960-1993 are given. Features of this so called "unrevised" or "first reported data" are discussed, and the data is compared with standard "fully revised" data using Granger causality tests.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics in its series Papers with number 4-96-7.

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Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: 1996
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fth:pensta:4-96-7

Contact details of provider:
Postal: PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIVERSITY, DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS, UNIVERSITY PARK PENNSYLVANIA 16802 U.S.A.
Phone: (814)865-1456
Fax: (814)863-4775
Web page: http://econ.la.psu.edu/
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Related research
Keywords: FORECASTS; TIME SERIES;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation and Testing
C59 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Other
C20 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - General
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions

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  1. Evan F. Koenig & Sheila Dolmas & Jeremy Piger, 2000. "The use and abuse of "real-time" data in economic forecasting," International Finance Discussion Papers 684, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 2002. "Is macroeconomic research robust to alternative data sets?," Working Papers 02-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
  3. Giampiero M. Gallo & Clive W.J. Granger & Yongil Jeon, 1999. "The Impact of the Use of Forecasts in Information Sets," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 99-18, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Hui Feng, 2005. "Real-Time or Current Vintage: Does the Type of Data Matter for Forecasting and Model Selection?," Econometrics Working Papers 0515, Department of Economics, University of Victoria. [Downloadable!]
  5. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2007. "Tests of equal predictive ability with real-time data," Research Working Paper RWP 07-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Peter Christoffersen & Eric Ghysels & Norman Swanson, 2000. "Let's Get "Real" About Using Economic Data," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1004, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Jonas Dovern & Christina Ziegler, 2008. "Predicting Growth Rates and Recessions. Assessing U.S. Leading Indicators Under Real-Time Conditions," Kiel Working Papers 1397, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 2000. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists: does data vintage matter for forecasting?," Working Papers 00-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
  9. John C. Robertson & Ellis W. Tallman, 1998. "Data vintages and measuring forecast model performance," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q 4, pages 4-20. [Downloadable!]
  10. Tom Stark & Dean Croushore, 2001. "Forecasting with a real-time data set for macroeconomists," Working Papers 01-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Carlo Altavilla & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2007. "Information combination and forecast (st)ability. Evidence from vintages of time-series data," Working Paper Series 846, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  12. Giampiero M. Gallo & Clive W.J. Granger & Yongil Jeon, 2001. "Copycats and Common Swings: the Impact of the Use of Forecasts in Information Sets," Econometrics Working Papers Archive wp2001_01, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica "G. Parenti". [Downloadable!]
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