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Scenarios to explore global food security up to 2050: Development process, storylines and quantification of drivers

Author

Listed:
  • Michiel van Dijk
  • Maryia Mandryk
  • Marc Gramberger
  • David Laborde
  • Lindsay Shutes
  • Elke Stehfest
  • Hugo Valin
  • Katharina Zellmer

Abstract

To guide policymaking, decision makers require a good understanding of the long-term drivers of food security and their interactions. Scenario analysis is widely considered as the appropriate tool to assess complex and uncertain problems, such as food security. This paper describes the development process, storylines and drivers of four new global scenarios up to the year 2050 that are specifically designed for food security modelling. To ensure the relevance, credibility and legitimacy of the scenarios a participatory process is used, involving a diverse group of stakeholders. A novel approach is introduced to quantify a selection of key drivers that directly can be used as input in global integrated assessment models to assess the impact of aid, trade, agricultural and science policies on global food and nutrition security.

Suggested Citation

  • Michiel van Dijk & Maryia Mandryk & Marc Gramberger & David Laborde & Lindsay Shutes & Elke Stehfest & Hugo Valin & Katharina Zellmer, 2016. "Scenarios to explore global food security up to 2050: Development process, storylines and quantification of drivers," FOODSECURE Working papers 38, LEI Wageningen UR.
    • Handle: RePEc:fsc:fspubl:38
    as

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    File URL: http://www3.lei.wur.nl/FoodSecurePublications/WP38_scenarios.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michiel van Dijk & Gerdien Meijerink, 2014. "A review of global food security scenario and assessment studies: results, gaps and research priorities," FOODSECURE Working papers 20, LEI Wageningen UR.
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    4. Wirsenius, Stefan & Azar, Christian & Berndes, Göran, 2010. "How much land is needed for global food production under scenarios of dietary changes and livestock productivity increases in 2030?," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 103(9), pages 621-638, November.
    5. N/A, 2001. "The World Economy," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 176(1), pages 35-60, April.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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