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Improving effective use of seasonal forecasts in South Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Vincent, Katharine
  • Cull, Tracy
  • van Garderen, Emma Archer
  • Conway, Declan
  • Dalin, Carole
  • Deryng, Delphine
  • Dorling, Steve
  • Fallon, Amy
  • Landman, Willem

Abstract

The study showed that El Niño no longer strikes the same fear as it used to, even in the agricultural sector where the negative impacts of the 1997-98 and 1982-83 events are within living memory. The widespread drought associated with the El Niño event of 2015/16 (subsequent to this study) may, however, reverse this trend and promote greater interest in the role of ENSOs in seasonal forecasts. There is little demand for El Niño-specific forecasts outside of agricultural research. However there is evidence for the use of seasonal forecasts in the agriculture, water and disaster preparedness and response sectors in South Africa.

Suggested Citation

  • Vincent, Katharine & Cull, Tracy & van Garderen, Emma Archer & Conway, Declan & Dalin, Carole & Deryng, Delphine & Dorling, Steve & Fallon, Amy & Landman, Willem, 2016. "Improving effective use of seasonal forecasts in South Africa," Project notes 1, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    • Handle: RePEc:fpr:prnote:sawhewspn1
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    Cited by:

    1. Sardorbek Musayev & Jonathan Mellor & Tara Walsh & Emmanouil Anagnostou, 2021. "Development of an Agent-Based Model for Weather Forecast Information Exchange in Rural Area of Bahir Dar, Ethiopia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-21, April.

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