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Impact simulation of ECOWAS rice self-sufficiency policy:

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  • Fofana, Ismaël
  • Goundan, Anatole
  • Magne Domgho, Léa Vicky

Abstract

Rice is a strategic commodity for food security in West Africa. Its consumption has grown rapidly over time as a result of population growth, urbanization, and increasing purchasing power. Dependency on imported rice exposes the region to external shocks stemming from the global market. Given its economic and social importance, most countries in West Africa have developed a national strategy for rice development alongside their agricultural sector-wide policy. In addition, the Economic Community of West African States is actively supportive of national strategies under a regional offensive to boost rice production and meet the challenge of rice self-sufficiency in the region by 2025. Our analysis uses economic models to forecast rice consumption, and then simulates the economywide impacts of achieving rice self-sufficiency in West Africa. Results show that per capita consumption of rice is expected to increase from 44 to 53 kilograms on average between 2011 and 2025.

Suggested Citation

  • Fofana, Ismaël & Goundan, Anatole & Magne Domgho, Léa Vicky, 2014. "Impact simulation of ECOWAS rice self-sufficiency policy:," IFPRI discussion papers 1405, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    • Handle: RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1405
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    1. Hyndman, Rob J. & Koehler, Anne B. & Snyder, Ralph D. & Grose, Simone, 2002. "A state space framework for automatic forecasting using exponential smoothing methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 439-454.
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    4. World Bank, 2014. "World Development Indicators 2014," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 18237, December.
    5. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ogoudélé S. Codjo & Alvaro Durand‐Morat & Grant H. West & Lawton Lanier Nalley & Rodolfo M. Nayga & Eric J. Wailes, 2021. "Estimating demand elasticities for rice in Benin," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 52(2), pages 343-361, March.
    2. Demont, Matty & Fiamohe, Rose & Kinkpé, A. Thierry, 2017. "Comparative Advantage in Demand and the Development of Rice Value Chains in West Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 578-590.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Rice; food consumption; Agricultural policies; Mathematical models; Imports; economic growth; Economic development; Food demand; self sufficiency; forecast; policy modeling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models

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