First union formation in Italy: The role of micro- and macro-level economic conditions

In this paper, we use data from the ‘Families and Social Subjects’ survey conducted by the Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT) in 2016 to study the impact of micro- and macro-level economic conditions on first co-residential union formation. We aim to determine if and to what extent the probability of forming the first union is entirely explained by individual labour market positions (e.g. being unemployed or having non-standard employment), or whether adverse macro-economic conditions – which arguably increase the personal perception of uncertainty – also play a role. We differentiate by union type – marriage and cohabitation – known to be characterised by different levels of union commitment, as well as address potential gender differences by conducting separate analyses on men and women. Our results suggest that while both micro- and macro-level economic factors matter in the union formation process, their effect varies by gender and union type. Individual economic vulnerability has a greater impact on marriage than on cohabitation. Meanwhile, contextual economic uncertainty plays a relevant role in the transition to cohabitation (for both men and women) and, to a lesser extent, in the transition to marriage (for women).