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The reaction of consumer spending and debt to tax rebates; evidence from consumer credit data

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Author Info
Sumit Agarwal
Chunlin Liu
Nicholas Souleles

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Abstract

The authors use a new panel data set of credit card accounts to analyze how consumers responded to the 2001 federal income tax rebates. They estimate the monthly response of credit card payments, spending, and debt, exploiting the unique, randomized timing of the rebate disbursement. They find that, on average, consumers initially saved some of the rebate by increasing their credit card payments and thereby paying down debt. But soon afterward their spending increased, counter to the canonical permanent-income model. Spending rose most for consumers who were initially most likely to be liquidity constrained, whereas debt declined most (so saving rose most) for unconstrained consumers. More generally, the results suggest that there can be important dynamics in consumers' response to "lumpy" increases in income like tax rebates, working in part through balance-sheet (liquidity) mechanisms. ; Also issued as Payment Cards Center Discussion Paper No. 07-18

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia in its series Working Papers with number 07-34.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedpwp:07-34

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Keywords: Taxation ; Consumer credit;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Martin Browning & Annamaria Lusardi, 1996. "Household Saving: Micro Theories and Micro Facts," Discussion Papers 96-01, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
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  2. Jappelli, Tullio, 1990. "Who Is Credit Constrained in the U.S. Economy?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 105(1), pages 219-34, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Reis, Ricardo, 2006. "Inattentive consumers," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 1761-1800, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Martin Browning & M. Dolores Collado, 2001. "The Response of Expenditures to Anticipated Income Changes: Panel Data Estimates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(3), pages 681-692, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Tullio Jappelli & Jörn-Steffen Pischke & Nicholas S. Souleles, 1998. "Testing For Liquidity Constraints In Euler Equations With Complementary Data Sources," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 251-262, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Jonathan A. Parker, 1999. "The Reaction of Household Consumption to Predictable Changes in Social Security Taxes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(4), pages 959-973, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Nicholas S. Souleles, 1999. "The Response of Household Consumption to Income Tax Refunds," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(4), pages 947-958, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Souleles, Nicholas S, 2004. "Expectations, Heterogeneous Forecast Errors, and Consumption: Micro Evidence from the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Surveys," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(1), pages 39-72, February.
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  12. Musto, David K. & Souleles, Nicholas S., 2006. "A portfolio view of consumer credit," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 59-84, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Souleles, Nicholas S., 2002. "Consumer response to the Reagan tax cuts," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 99-120, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Chang-Tai Hsieh, 2003. "Do Consumers React to Anticipated Income Changes? Evidence from the Alaska Permanent Fund," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 397-405, March. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Poterba, James M, 1988. "Are Consumers Forward Looking? Evidence from Fiscal Experiments," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(2), pages 413-18, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. repec:fth:pennfi:69 is not listed on IDEAS
  18. David W. Wilcox, 1990. "Income tax refunds and the timing of consumption expenditure," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 106, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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  21. Slemrod, Joel, et al, 1997. "April 15 Syndrome," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 35(4), pages 695-709, October.
  22. Souleles, Nicholas S., 2000. "College tuition and household savings and consumption," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 185-207, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. David S. Johnson & Jonathan A. Parker & Nicholas S. Souleles, 2004. "Household Expenditure and the Income Tax Rebates of 2001," NBER Working Papers 10784, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Sumit Agarwal & John C. Driscoll & Xavier Gabaix & David Laibson, 2008. "Learning in the Credit Card Market," NBER Working Papers 13822, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Peter Kuhn & Peter Kooreman & Adriaan R. Soetevent & Arie Kapteyn, 2008. "The Own and Social Effects of an Unexpected Income Shock," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-048/1, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
  4. Besley, Timothy J. & Meads, Neil & Surico, Paolo, 2008. "Household External Finance and Consumption," CEPR Discussion Papers 6934, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Mark L. Hoekstra & Scott Hankins & Paige Marta Skiba, 2008. "The Ticket to Easy Street? The Financial Consequences of Winning the Lottery," Working Papers 344, University of Pittsburgh, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2009. [Downloadable!]
  6. Matthew D. Shapiro & Joel B. Slemrod, 2009. "Did the 2008 Tax Rebates Stimulate Spending?," NBER Working Papers 14753, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Daniel Aaronson & Sumit Agarwal & Eric French, 2008. "The consumption response to minimum wage increases," Working Paper Series WP-07-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
  8. Sumit Agarwal & John C. Driscoll & Xavier Gabaix & David Laibson, 2007. "The Age of Reason: Financial Decisions Over the Lifecycle," NBER Working Papers 13191, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Peter Kuhn & Peter Kooreman & Adriaan R. Stoetevent & Arie Kapteyn, 2008. "The Own and Social Effects of an Unexpected Income Shock: Evidence from the Dutch Postcode Lottery," Working Papers 574, RAND Corporation Publications Department. [Downloadable!]
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