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Juvenile delinquent mortgages: bad credit or bad economy?

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Author Info
Andrew Haughwout
Richard Peach
Joseph Tracy

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Abstract

We study early default, defined as serious delinquency or foreclosure in the first year, among nonprime mortgages from the 2001 to 2007 vintages. After documenting a dramatic rise in such defaults and discussing their correlates, we examine two primary explanations: changes in underwriting standards that took place over this period and changes in the economic environment. We find that while credit standards were important in determining the probability of an early default, changes in the economy after 2004 - especially a sharp reversal in house price appreciation - were the more critical factor in the increase in default rates. A notable additional result is that despite our rich set of covariates, much of the increase remains unexplained, even in retrospect. Thus, the fact that the credit markets seemed surprised by the rate of early defaults in the 2006 and 2007 nonprime vintages becomes more understandable.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its series Staff Reports with number 341.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:341

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Related research
Keywords: Subprime mortgage ; Default (Finance) ; Credit ; Economic conditions ; Housing - Prices;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Yongheng Deng & John M. Quigley & Robert Van Order, . "Mortgage Terminations, Heterogeneity and the Exercise of Mortgage Options," Zell/Lurie Center Working Papers 322, Wharton School Samuel Zell and Robert Lurie Real Estate Center, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Yuliya Demyanyk & Otto Van Hemert, 2007. "Understanding the subprime mortgage crisis," Supervisory Policy Analysis Working Papers 2007-05, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  3. Christopher L. Foote & Kristopher Gerardi & Paul S. Willen, 2008. "Negative equity and foreclosure: theory and evidence," Public Policy Discussion Paper 08-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Karen M. Pence, 2003. "Foreclosing on opportunity: state laws and mortgage credit," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-16, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  5. Deng, Yongheng & Gabriel, Stuart, 2006. "Risk-Based Pricing and the Enhancement of Mortgage Credit Availability among Underserved and Higher Credit-Risk Populations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(6), pages 1431-1460, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Kau, James B, et al, 1995. "The Valuation at Origination of Fixed-Rate Mortgages with Default and Prepayment," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 5-36, July.
  7. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Kau James B. & Keenan Donald C. & Kim Taewon, 1994. "Default Probabilities for Mortgages," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 278-296, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Caplin, Andrew & Freeman, Charles & Tracy, Joseph, 1997. "Collateral Damage: Refinancing Constraints and Regional Recessions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(4), pages 496-516, November.
  10. Christopher J. Mayer & Karen Pence, 2008. "Subprime Mortgages: What, Where, and to Whom?," NBER Working Papers 14083, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Yuliya Demyanyk, 2009. "Quick exits of subprime mortgages," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 79-94. [Downloadable!]
  2. Fernando Ferreira & Joseph Gyourko & Joseph Tracy, 2008. "Housing Busts and Household Mobility," NBER Working Papers 14310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Luci Ellis, 2008. "How many in negative equity? The role of mortgage contract characteristics," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December. [Downloadable!]
  4. Andrew Haughwout & Christopher Mayer & Joseph Tracy, 2009. "Subprime mortgage pricing: the impact of race, ethnicity, and gender on the cost of borrowing," Staff Reports 368, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  5. Andrew F. Haughwout & Ebiere Okah, 2009. "Below the line: estimates of negative equity among nonprime mortgage borrowers," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 31-43. [Downloadable!]
  6. Christopher J. Mayer & Karen M. Pence & Shane M. Sherlund, 2008. "The rise in mortgage defaults," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-59, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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