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Growth uncertainty and risksharing

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Author Info
Stefano Athanasoulis
Eric van Wincoop

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Abstract

We propose a new methodology to evaluate the gains from global risksharing that is closely connected to the empirical growth literature. We obtain estimates of residual risk (growth uncertainty) at various horizons from regressions of country-specific deviations from world growth on a wide set of variables in the information set. Since this residual risk can be entirely hedged, we use it to obtain a measure of welfare gain that can be achieved by a representative country. We find that nations can reap very large benefits from engaging in such risksharing arrangements. Using post-war data, the gain for a 35-year horizon, corresponding to an equivalent permanent increase in consumption, is 6.6% when based on a set of 49 countries, and 1.5% when based on 21 OECD countries. Using historical data from 1870 to 1990, we find that the potential gain for a 120-year horizon ranges from 4.9% for a small set of rich countries to 16.5% for a broad set of 24 countries.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its series Staff Reports with number 30.

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Date of creation: 1997
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:30

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Keywords: Risk ; Economic development ; Economic history;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1995. "The Terms of Trade, the Real Exchange Rate, and Economic Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(1), pages 101-37, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. N. Gregory Mankiw, 1995. "The Growth of Nations," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1732, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
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  3. Baumol, William J & Wolff, Edward N, 1988. "Productivity Growth, Convergence, and Welfare: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(5), pages 1155-59, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Maurice Obstfeld, 1994. "Are Industrial-Country Consumption Risks Globally Diversified?," NBER Working Papers 4308, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. William Easterly & Michael Kremer & Lant Pritchett & Lawrence H. Summers, 1993. "Good Policy or Good Luck? Country Growth Performance and Temporary Shocks," NBER Working Papers 4474, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Robert J. Shiller & Stefano Athanasoulis, 1995. "World Income Components: Measuring and Exploiting International Risk Sharing Opportunities," NBER Working Papers 5095, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Friend, Irwin & Blume, Marshall E, 1975. "The Demand for Risky Assets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(5), pages 900-922, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Cole, Harold L. & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1991. "Commodity trade and international risk sharing : How much do financial markets matter?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 3-24, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," NBER Working Papers 3120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Kenneth R. French & James M. Poterba, 1991. "Investor Diversification and International Equity Markets," NBER Working Papers 3609, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Robert J. Shiller & J. Huston McCulloch, 1987. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 2341, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Tesar, Linda L., 1995. "Evaluating the gains from international risksharing," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 95-143, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1994. "Evaluating risky consumption paths: The role of intertemporal substitutability," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 1471-1486, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Linda L. Tesar & Ingrid M. Werner, 1994. "International Equity Transactions and U.S. Portfolio Choice," NBER Chapters, in: The Internationalization of Equity Markets, pages 185-227 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  19. Robert J. Barro & Paul Romer, 1993. "Economic Growth," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number barr93-1, Summer.
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    • Robert J. Barro & Paul M. Romer, 1991. "Economic Growth," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number barr91-1, Summer.
  20. Canova, Fabio & Ravn, Morten O, 1996. "International Consumption Risk Sharing," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 37(3), pages 573-601, August.
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  21. Maurice Obstfeld, 1995. "Risk-Taking, Global Diversification, and Growth," NBER Working Papers 4093, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992. "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-63, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  23. Evans, Paul & Karras, Georgios, 1996. "Convergence revisited," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 249-265, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Fischer, Stanley, 1993. "The role of macroeconomic factors in growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 485-512, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  25. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1992. "International Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 745-75, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  26. van Wincoop, Eric, 1995. "Regional risksharing," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(8), pages 1545-1567, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  27. Linda L. Tesar & Ingrid M. Werner, 1994. "International Equity Transactions and U.S. Portfolio Choice," NBER Working Papers 4611, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  28. Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong-Wha, 1994. "Sources of economic growth," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 1-46, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ken Miyajima, 2006. "How to Evaluate GDP-Linked Warrants: Price and Repayment Capacity," IMF Working Papers 06/85, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  2. Hiroshi Fujiki & nd Akiko Terada-Hagiwara, 2007. "Financial Integration in East Asia," IMES Discussion Paper Series 07-E-12, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Volker Reinthaler, 2005. "Country Portfolios and the Solow-Model," Economics Working Papers 904, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. [Downloadable!]
  4. Jean Imbs & Paolo Mauro, 2007. "Pooling Risk Among Countries," IMF Working Papers 07/132, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Herrera, Santiago & Vincent, Bruno, 2008. "Public expenditure and consumption volatility," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4633, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Robert J. Shiller, 2005. "The Life-Cycle Personal Accounts Proposal for Social Security: A Review," NBER Working Papers 11300, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Ralph Chami & Gregory Hess, 2002. "For Better or For Worse? State-Level Marital Formation and Risk Sharing," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Stefano G. Athanasoulis & Robert J. Shiller, 2001. "World Income Components: Measuring and Exploiting Risk-Sharing Opportunities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 1031-1054, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Robert J. Shiller, 2004. "Radical Financial Innovation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1461, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  10. Richard N. Cooper & Jane Sneddon Little, 2000. "U.S. monetary policy in an integrating world: 1960 to 2000," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Oct, pages 77-121. [Downloadable!]
  11. Auffret, Philippe, 2001. "An alternative unifying measure of welfare gains from risk-sharing," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2676, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  12. Stafano Athanasoulis & Eric van Wincoop, 1998. "Risksharing within the United States: what have financial markets and fiscal federalism accomplished?," Research Paper 9808, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  13. Attilio Gardini & Giuseppe Cavaliere & Luca Fanelli, 2006. "Risk sharing, avversione al rischio e stabilizzazione delle economie regionali in Italia," Quaderni di Dipartimento 0, Department of Statistics, University of Bologna. [Downloadable!]
  14. Lane, Philip R., 1999. "Do International Investment Income Flows Smooth Income?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2123, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Elizabeth Asiedu & Yi Jin & Anne Villamil, 2006. "Do lack of transparency and enforcement undermine international risk-sharing?," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 123-140, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Robert J. Shiller, 2005. "The Life-Cycle Personal Accounts Proposal for Social Security: An Evaluation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1504, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  17. Henry, Peter B., 2007. "Capital Account Liberalization: Theory, Evidence, and Speculation," Research Papers 1974, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business. [Downloadable!]
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  18. Sylvester Eijffinger & Wolf Wagner, 2001. "The Feasible Gains from International Risk Sharing," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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