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Deflationary shocks and monetary rules: an open-economy scenario analysis

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Author Info
Douglas Laxton
Papa N'Diaye
Paolo Pesenti

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Abstract

The paper considers the macroeconomic transmission of demand and supply shocks in an open economy under alternative assumptions about whether the zero interest rate floor (ZIF) is binding. It uses a two-country general-equilibrium simulation model calibrated to the Japanese economy relative to the rest of the world. Negative demand shocks have more prolonged and conspicuous effects on the economy when the ZIF is binding than when it is not binding. Positive supply shocks can actually extend the period of time over which the ZIF may be expected to bind. Economies that are more open hit the ZIF for a shorter period of time, and with less harmful effects. The implications of deflationary supply shocks depend on whether the shocks are concentrated in the tradables or the nontradables sector. Price-level-path targeting rules are likely to provide better guidelines for monetary policy in a deflationary environment, and have desirable properties in normal times when the ZIF is not binding.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its series Staff Reports with number 267.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:267

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Related research
Keywords: Economic forecasting ; Monetary policy ; Interest rates ; Macroeconomics;

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  1. Nicoletta Batini & Papa M'B. P. N'Diaye & Alessandro Rebucci, 2005. "The Domestic and Global Impact of Japan's Policies for Growth," IMF Working Papers 05/209, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Michael Woodford, 2003. "Optimal Monetary Policy in a Liquidity Trap," NBER Working Papers 9968, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Gauti Eggertsson & Michael Woodford, 2004. "Optimal monetary and fiscal policy in a liquidity trap," Discussion Papers 0405-02, Columbia University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Ben Hunt & Douglas Laxton, 2001. "The Zero Interest Rate Floor (ZIF) and its Implications for Monetary Policy in Japan," IMF Working Papers 01/186, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  5. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2003. "The excess sensitivity of long-term interest rates: evidence and implications for macroeconomic models," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Svensson, Lars-E-O, 2001. "The Zero Bound in an Open Economy: A Foolproof Way of Escaping from a Liquidity Trap," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 19(S1), pages 277-312, February. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Tamim Bayoumi & Douglas Laxton & Paolo Pesenti, 2004. "Benefits and spillovers of greater competition in Europe: a macroeconomic assessment," Staff Reports 182, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Bennett McCallum, 2001. "Inflation targeting and the liquidity trap," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1998. "Monetary Policy Shocks: What Have We Learned and to What End?," NBER Working Papers 6400, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-17, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Bennett T. McCallum, 2000. "Theoretical analysis regarding a zero lower bound on nominal interest rates," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, pages 870-935.
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  13. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "The Sensitivity of Long-Term Interest Rates to Economic News: Evidence and Implications for Macroeconomic Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 425-436, March. [Downloadable!]
  14. Andrew T. Levin & Fabio M. Natalucci & Jeremy M. Piger, 2004. "The macroeconomic effects of inflation targeting," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 51-80. [Downloadable!]
  15. Hamid Faruqee & Douglas Laxton & Dirk Muir & Paolo Pesenti, 2005. "Smooth Landing or Crash? Model-Based Scenarios of Global Current Account Rebalancing," NBER Working Papers 11583, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Fumio Hayashi & Edward C. Prescott, 2002. "The 1990s in Japan: A Lost Decade," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(1), pages 206-235, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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