This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Do stock price bubbles influence corporate investment?

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Simon Gilchrist
Charles P. Himmelberg
Gur Huberman

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

Building on recent developments in behavioral asset pricing, we develop a model in which an increase in the dispersion of investor beliefs under short-selling constraints predicts a "bubble," or a rise in a stock's price above its fundamental value. Our model predicts that managers respond to bubbles by issuing new equity and increasing capital expenditures. We test these predictions, as well as others, using the variance of analysts' earnings forecasts-a proxy for the dispersion of investor beliefs-to identify the bubble component in Tobin's Q. ; When comparing firms traded on the New York Stock Exchange with those traded on NASDAQ, we find that our model successfully captures key features of the technology boom of the 1990s. We obtain further evidence supporting our model by using a panel-data VAR framework. We find that orthogonalized shocks to dispersion have positive and statistically significant effects on Tobin's Q, net equity issuance, and real investment-results that are consistent with the model's predictions.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr177.html
File Format: text/html
File Function:
Download Restriction: no
File URL: http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr177.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its series Staff Reports with number 177.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:177

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 33 Liberty Street, New York, NY 10045-0001
Email:
Web page: http://www.newyorkfed.org/
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Email:
Web: http://www.ny.frb.org/rmaghome/staff_rp/

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Diane Rosenberger).

Related research
Keywords: Stock - Prices ; Corporations - Finance ; Stock exchanges ; Asset pricing ; Investments;

Other versions of this item:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Stein, Jeremy C, 1996. "Rational Capital Budgeting in an Irrational World," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 69(4), pages 429-55, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1997. " The Limits of Arbitrage," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 35-55, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Lakonishok, Josef & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1994. " Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1541-78, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Malcolm Baker & Jeremy C. Stein & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2002. "When Does the Market Matter? Stock Prices and the Investment of Equity-Dependent Firms," NBER Working Papers 8750, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Miller, Edward M, 1977. "Risk, Uncertainty, and Divergence of Opinion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(4), pages 1151-68, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Morck, Randall & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1990. " Do Managerial Objectives Drive Bad Acquisitions?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 31-48, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Christopher Polk & Paola Sapienza, 2004. "The Real Effects of Investor Sentiment," NBER Working Papers 10563, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Timothy Erickson & Toni M. Whited, 2000. "Measurement Error and the Relationship between Investment and q," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(5), pages 1027-1057, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2002. "Market Timing and Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 1-32, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. David Hirshleifer, 2001. "Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1533-1597, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Huntley Schaller & Robert S. Chirinko, 1995. "Business Fixed Investment and "Bubbles": the Japanese Case," Carleton Economic Papers 95-13, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
    Other versions:
  12. Simon Gilchrist & Charles Himmelberg, 1998. "Investment, Fundamentals and Finance," NBER Working Papers 6652, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Randall Morck & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1990. "The Stock Market and Investment: Is the Market a Sideshow?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(1990-2), pages 157-216. [Downloadable!]
  14. Stephen Bond, 2000. "Noisy Share Prices and the Q Model of Investment," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1320, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Jones, Charles M. & Lamont, Owen A., 2002. "Short-sale constraints and stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2-3), pages 207-239. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Scholes, Myron S, 1972. "The Market for Securities: Substitution versus Price Pressure and the Effects of Information on Share Prices," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 45(2), pages 179-211, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Loderer, Claudio & Cooney, John W & van Drunen, Leonard D, 1991. " The Price Elasticity of Demand for Common Stock," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 621-51, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Blanchard, Olivier & Rhee, Changyong & Summers, Lawrence, 1993. "The Stock Market, Profit, and Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(1), pages 115-36, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  19. Eli Ofek & Matthew Richardson, 2003. "DotCom Mania: The Rise and Fall of Internet Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(3), pages 1113-1138, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Cheolbeom Park, 2001. "Stock Returns and the Dispersion in Earnings Forecasts," Departmental Working Papers wp0117, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  21. Duffie, Darrell & Garleanu, Nicolae & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2002. "Securities lending, shorting, and pricing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2-3), pages 307-339. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Harrison Hong & Jeremy C. Stein, 2003. "Differences of Opinion, Short-Sales Constraints, and Market Crashes," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(2), pages 487-525. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Gur Huberman, 2001. "Contagious Speculation and a Cure for Cancer: A Nonevent that Made Stock Prices Soar," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 387-396, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Franklin Allen & Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2006. "Beauty Contests and Iterated Expectations in Asset Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(3), pages 719-752. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  25. D'Avolio, Gene, 2002. "The market for borrowing stock," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2-3), pages 271-306. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. Shleifer, Andrei, 1986. " Do Demand Curves for Stocks Slope Down?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 579-90, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  27. Chen, Joseph & Hong, Harrison & Stein, Jeremy C., 2002. "Breadth of ownership and stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2-3), pages 171-205. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  28. Marianne Bertrand & Antoinette Schoar, 2003. "Managing With Style: The Effect Of Managers On Firm Policies," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 118(4), pages 1169-1208, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  29. Hayashi, Fumio, 1982. "Tobin's Marginal q and Average q: A Neoclassical Interpretation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 213-24, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  30. Chirinko, Robert S. & Schaller, Huntley, 1996. "Bubbles, fundamentals, and investment: A multiple equation testing strategy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 47-76, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. W. Jos Jansen & Ad C.J. Stokman, 2004. "Foreign Direct Investment and International Business Cycle Comovement," Macroeconomics 0402029, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Forssbæck , Jens & Oxelheim, Lars, 2008. "Financial Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment," Working Paper Series 741, Research Institute of Industrial Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. W.Jos Jansen & Ad C.J.Stokman, 2003. "The Importance of Multinational Companies for Global Economic Linkages," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 99, Netherlands Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Kevin J. Lansing, 2008. "Speculative growth and overreaction to technology shocks," Working Paper Series 2008-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
  5. John Conlon, 2005. "Should Central Banks Burst Bubbles?," Game Theory and Information 0508007, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  6. Massa, Massimo & Peyer, Urs & Tong, Zhenxu, 2005. "Limits of Arbitrage and Corporate Financial Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 4829, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Dong, Ming & Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2007. "Stock market misvaluation and corporate investment," MPRA Paper 3109, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 May 2007. [Downloadable!]
  8. John R. Conlon, 2008. "Should Central Banks Burst Bubbles? Some Microeconomic Issues," Levine's Working Paper Archive 122247000000002330, David K. Levine. [Downloadable!]
  9. Christopher Polk & Paola Sapienza, 2004. "The Real Effects of Investor Sentiment," NBER Working Papers 10563, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Guido Lorenzoni & Karl Walentin, 2007. "Financial Frictions, Investment and Tobin's q," NBER Working Papers 13092, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Philippe Aghion & Jeremy C. Stein, 2004. "Growth vs. Margins: Destabilizing Consequences of Giving the Stock Market What it Wants," NBER Working Papers 10999, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Malcolm Baker & C. Fritz Foley & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2004. "The Stock Market and Investment: Evidence from FDI Flows," NBER Working Papers 10559, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Murillo Campello & John Graham, 2007. "Do Stock Prices Influence Corporate Decisions? Evidence from the Technology Bubble," NBER Working Papers 13640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Robert Chirinko & Hisham Foad, 2006. "Noise vs. News in Equity Returns," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. George-Marios Angeletos & Guido Lorenzoni & Alessandro Pavan, 2007. "Wall Street and Silicon Valley: A Delicate Interaction," NBER Working Papers 13475, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? There are over 21000 authors registered on RePEc Author Service.

This page was last updated on 2009-10-30.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.