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Taxes, regulations, and asset prices

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Author Info
Ellen R. McGrattan
Edward C. Prescott

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Abstract

U.S. stock prices have increased much faster than gross domestic product GDP) in the postwar period. Between 1962 and 2000, corporate equity value relative to GDP nearly doubled. In this paper, we determine what standard growth theory says the equity value should be in 1962 and 2000, the two years for which our steady-state assumption is a reasonable one. We find that the actual valuations were close to the theoretical predictions in both years. The reason for the large run-up in equity value relative to GDP is that the average tax rate on dividends fell dramatically between 1962 and 2000. We also find that, given legal constraints that effectively prohibited the holding of stocks as reserves for pension plans, there is no equity premium puzzle in the postwar period. The average returns on debt and equity are as theory predicts.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis in its series Working Papers with number 610.

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Date of creation: 2001
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Publication status: Published in Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Staff Report 309
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmwp:610

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Keywords: Asset pricing Taxation Regulation

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. John H. Cochrane, 1988. "Production Based Asset Pricing," NBER Working Papers 2776, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1994. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," CRSP working papers 412, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Martin Feldstein, 1980. "Inflation, Tax Rules, and the Stock Market," NBER Working Papers 0403, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Cochrane, John H, 1991. " Production-Based Asset Pricing and the Link between Stock Returns and Economic Fluctuations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 209-37, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1985. "The Economic Effects of Dividend Taxation," NBER Working Papers 1353, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Heaton, John & Lucas, Deborah J, 1996. "Evaluating the Effects of Incomplete Markets on Risk Sharing and Asset Pricing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(3), pages 443-87, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Ellen R. McGrattan & Edward C. Prescott, 2000. "Is the stock market overvalued?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall, pages 20-40. [Downloadable!]
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  8. George M. Constantinides & John B. Donaldson & Rajnish Mehra, . "Junior Can't borrow: A New Perspective on the Equity Premium Puzzle."," CRSP working papers 457, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
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  9. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J & Tallarini, Thomas D, Jr, 1999. "Robust Permanent Income and Pricing," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 66(4), pages 873-907, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Abel, A.B., 1990. "Asset Prices Under Habit Formation And Catching Up With The Joneses," Weiss Center Working Papers 1-90, Wharton School - Weiss Center for International Financial Research.
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  11. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Feldstein, Martin & Green, Jerry, 1983. "Why Do Companies Pay Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 17-30, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Feldstein, Martin, 1980. "Inflation and the Stock Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 839-47, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Bansal, Ravi & Coleman, Wilbur John, II, 1996. "A Monetary Explanation of the Equity Premium, Term Premium, and Risk-Free Rate Puzzles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(6), pages 1135-71, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Jermann, Urban J., 1998. "Asset pricing in production economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 257-275, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Feldstein, Martin, 1980. "Inflation, tax rules and the stock market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 309-331, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Lawrence H. Summers, 1981. "Taxation and Corporate Investment: A q-Theory Approach," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(1981-1), pages 67-140. [Downloadable!]
  18. Kurz, M. & Beltratti, A., 1996. "The Equity Premium Is No Puzzle," Papers 282, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
  19. Michele Boldrin & Lawrence J. Christiano & Jonas D.M. Fisher, 1995. "Asset pricing lessons for modeling business cycles," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 95-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
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  20. Fernando Alvarez & Urban J. Jermann, 1999. "Quantitative Asset Pricing Implications of Endogenous Solvency Constraints," NBER Working Papers 6953, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. John Y. Campbell & John Cochrane, 1999. "Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(2), pages 205-251, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Robert E. Hall, 1999. "The Stock Market and Capital Accumulation," NBER Working Papers 7180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  23. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 2001. "Valuation Ratios and the Long-run Stock Market Outlook: An Update," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1295, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  24. Auerbach, Alan J, 1979. "Wealth Maximization and the Cost of Capital," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 93(3), pages 433-46, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  25. Constantinides, George M, 1990. "Habit Formation: A Resolution of the Equity Premium Puzzle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(3), pages 519-43, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. M. Fatih Guvenen, 2003. "A Parsimonious Macroeconomic Model for Asset Pricing: Habit Formation or Cross-sectional Heterogeneity?," RCER Working Papers 499, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER). [Downloadable!]
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  2. Cysne, Rubens Penha, 2005. "Equity-Premium Puzzle: Evidence From Brazilian Data," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 586, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Tavares, Jose & Valkanov, Rossen, 2001. "The neglected effect of fiscal policy on stock and bond returns," FEUNL Working Paper Series wp413, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Economia. [Downloadable!]
  4. Ellen R. McGrattan & Edward C. Prescott, 2005. "Taxes, regulations, and the value of U.S. and U.K. corporations," Staff Report 309, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Maasoumi, Esfandiar & Lim, G.C. & Martin, Vance, 2006. "A reexamination of the equity-premium puzzle: A robust non-parametric approach," Departmental Working Papers 0604, Southern Methodist University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Robert J. Shiller, 2003. "From Efficient Markets Theory to Behavioral Finance," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 83-104, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Christophe Faugere & Julian Van Erlach, 2003. "The Equity Premium: Explained by GDP Growth and Consistent with Portfolio Insurance," Finance 0311004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  8. Ricardo Lagos, 2006. "Asset prices and liquidity in an exchange economy," Staff Report 373, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Jakob B. Madsen & E. Philip Davis, 2004. "Equity Prices, Productivity Growth and 'The New Economy," FRU Working Papers 2004/11, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. Finance Research Unit. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Edward C. Prescott, 2003. "Non-convexities in quantitative general equilibrium studies of business cycles," Staff Report 312, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Vance Martin & G.C. Lim & Esfandiar Maasoumi, 2004. "Discounting The Equity Premium Puzzle," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 331, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  12. Rajnish Mehra & Edward C. Prescott, 2003. "The Equity Premium in Retrospect," NBER Working Papers 9525, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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